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Climate emulation is an out-of-distribution (OOD) projection task. This is precisely the challenge where modern Machine Learning (ML) methods are most prone to failure. Consequently, while current ML emulators trained on present climate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Bradley Stanley-Clamp , Anson Lei , Hannah M. Christensen , Ingmar Posner

Weather forecasting remains a crucial yet challenging domain, where recently developed models based on deep learning (DL) have approached the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, these DL models,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-13 Zhanxiang Hua , Yutong He , Chengqian Ma , Alexandra Anderson-Frey

As Large Language Models (LLMs) rise in popularity, it is necessary to assess their capability in critically relevant domains. We present a comprehensive evaluation framework, grounded in science communication research, to assess LLM…

Systems exhibiting nonlinear dynamics, including but not limited to chaos, are ubiquitous across Earth Sciences such as Meteorology, Hydrology, Climate and Ecology, as well as Biology such as neural and cardiac processes. However, System…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-14 Nishant Yadav , Sai Ravela , Auroop R. Ganguly

Artificial neural-networks have the potential to emulate cloud processes with higher accuracy than the semi-empirical emulators currently used in climate models. However, neural-network models do not intrinsically conserve energy and mass,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-06-18 Tom Beucler , Stephan Rasp , Michael Pritchard , Pierre Gentine

Climate science is critical for understanding both the causes and consequences of changes in global temperatures and has become imperative for decisive policy-making. However, climate science studies commonly require addressing complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-23 Juan Carrillo , Daniel Garijo , Mark Crowley , Rober Carrillo , Yolanda Gil , Katherine Borda

Energy system models underpin decisions by energy system planners and operators. Energy system modelling faces a transformation: accounting for changing meteorological conditions imposed by climate change. To enable that transformation, a…

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) is the prediction of key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on the 2-week to 2-month time horizon. Skillful SSF would have substantial societal value in areas such as agricultural…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-12 Sijie He , Xinyan Li , Laurie Trenary , Benjamin A Cash , Timothy DelSole , Arindam Banerjee

Most state-of-the-art AI applications in atmospheric science are based on classic deep learning approaches. However, such approaches cannot automatically integrate multiple complicated procedures to construct an intelligent agent, since…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-26 Lujia Zhang , Hanzhe Cui , Yurong Song , Chenyue Li , Binhang Yuan , Mengqian Lu

To tackle ever-increasing city traffic congestion problems, researchers have proposed deep learning models to aid decision-makers in the traffic control domain. Although the proposed models have been remarkably improved in recent years,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-10 Hyunwook Lee , Cheonbok Park , Seungmin Jin , Hyeshin Chu , Jaegul Choo , Sungahn Ko

Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-06 Philip G. Sansom , David B. Stephenson , Thomas J. Bracegirdle

This dissertation will combine new tools and methodologies to answer pressing questions regarding inundation area and hurricane events in complex, heterogeneous changing environments. In addition to remote sensing approaches, citizen…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-14 Sulong Zhou

Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-30 Henry Addison , Elizabeth Kendon , Suman Ravuri , Laurence Aitchison , Peter AG Watson

Urbanization enables economic growth but also harms the environment through degradation. Traditional methods of detecting environmental issues have proven inefficient. Machine learning has emerged as a promising tool for tracking…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Anirudh Mazumder , Sarthak Engala , Aditya Nallaparaju

The application of Machine Learning (ML) to hydrologic modeling is fledgling. Its applicability to capture the dependencies on watersheds to forecast better within a short period is fascinating. One of the key reasons to adopt ML algorithms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Supath Dhital

Numerical weather prediction has traditionally been based on physical models of the atmosphere. Recently, however, the rise of deep learning has created increased interest in purely data-driven medium-range weather forecasting with first…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-03-17 Stephan Rasp , Nils Thuerey

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-04 Griffin Mooers , Tom Beucler , Mike Pritchard , Stephan Mandt

Many papers and monographs were written about the modeling the Earth climate and its variability. However there is still an obvious need for a module that presents the fundamentals of climate modeling to students at the undergraduate level.…

Popular Physics · Physics 2019-09-04 Mayer Humi

In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has deeply impacted various fields, including Earth system sciences. Here, AI improved weather forecasting, model emulation, parameter estimation, and the prediction of extreme events. However,…

Aerosol particles play an important role in the climate system by absorbing and scattering radiation and influencing cloud properties. They are also one of the biggest sources of uncertainty for climate modeling. Many climate models do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Paula Harder , Duncan Watson-Parris , Dominik Strassel , Nicolas Gauger , Philip Stier , Janis Keuper