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While recent developments in autonomous vehicle (AV) technology highlight substantial progress, we lack tools for rigorous and scalable testing. Real-world testing, the $\textit{de facto}$ evaluation environment, places the public in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-15 Matthew O'Kelly , Aman Sinha , Hongseok Namkoong , John Duchi , Russ Tedrake

Testing black-box perceptual-control systems in simulation faces two difficulties. Firstly, perceptual inputs in simulation lack the fidelity of real-world sensor inputs. Secondly, for a reasonably accurate perception system, encountering a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Craig Innes , Subramanian Ramamoorthy

In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic approach to risk assessment of robot systems by focusing on the impact of uncertainties. While various approaches to identifying systematic hazards (e.g., bugs, design flaws, etc.) can be found in…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Woo-Jeong Baek , Tom P. Huck , Joschka Haas , Jonas Lewandrowski , Tamim Asfour , Torsten Kröger

Existing neural network-based autonomous systems are shown to be vulnerable against adversarial attacks, therefore sophisticated evaluation on their robustness is of great importance. However, evaluating the robustness only under the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Wenhao Ding , Baiming Chen , Bo Li , Kim Ji Eun , Ding Zhao

Intelligent systems are increasingly integral to our daily lives, yet rare safety-critical events present significant latent threats to their practical deployment. Addressing this challenge hinges on accurately predicting the probability of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-08 Ruoxuan Bai , Jingxuan Yang , Weiduo Gong , Yi Zhang , Qiujing Lu , Shuo Feng

We introduce a simple but effective method for managing risk in model-based reinforcement learning with trajectory sampling that involves probabilistic safety constraints and balancing of optimism in the face of epistemic uncertainty and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Marin Vlastelica , Sebastian Blaes , Cristina Pineri , Georg Martius

Evaluating the reliability of intelligent physical systems against rare safety-critical events poses a huge testing burden for real-world applications. Simulation provides a useful platform to evaluate the extremal risks of these systems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Mansur Arief , Zhiyuan Huang , Guru Koushik Senthil Kumar , Yuanlu Bai , Shengyi He , Wenhao Ding , Henry Lam , Ding Zhao

An important step in the design of autonomous systems is to evaluate the probability that a failure will occur. In safety-critical domains, the failure probability is extremely small so that the evaluation of a policy through Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-23 Anthony Corso , Kyu-Young Kim , Shubh Gupta , Grace Gao , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

For the validation of safety-critical systems regarding safety and comfort, e.g., in the context of automated driving, engineers often have to cope with large (parametric) test spaces for which it is infeasible to test through all possible…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2021-07-02 Daniel Grujic , Tabea Henning , Emilio José Calleja García , Andre Bergmann

Extracting interesting scenarios from real-world data as well as generating failure cases is important for the development and testing of autonomous systems. We propose efficient mechanisms to both characterize and generate testing…

An open problem for autonomous driving is how to validate the safety of an autonomous vehicle in simulation. Automated testing procedures can find failures of an autonomous system but these failures may be difficult to interpret due to…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-06-29 Anthony Corso , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

The probability of rare and extreme events is an important quantity for design purposes. However, computing the probability of rare events can be expensive because only a few events, if any, can be observed. To this end, it is necessary to…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-01-08 Malik Hassanaly , Venkat Raman

Simulation based or dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methodologies were primarily developed for proving a more realistic and complete representation of complex systems accident response. Such simulation based methodologies have proven…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-09-30 Parhizkar Tarannom , Mosleh Ali

Driven by applications in telecommunication networks, we explore the simulation task of estimating rare event probabilities for tandem queues in their steady state. Existing literature has recognized that importance sampling methods can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Ruoning Zhao , Xinyun Chen

This article focuses, in the context of epidemic models, on rare events that may possibly correspond to crisis situations from the perspective of Public Health. In general, no close analytic form for their occurrence probabilities is…

Applications · Statistics 2013-08-28 Stéphan Clémençon , Anthony Cousien , Miraine Dávila Felipe , Viet Chi Tran

As industrial autonomous ground vehicles are increasingly deployed in safety-critical environments, ensuring their safe operation under diverse conditions is paramount. This paper presents a novel approach for their safety verification…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Nawshin Mannan Proma , Gricel Vázquez , Sepeedeh Shahbeigi , Arjun Badyal , Victoria Hodge

Automated Vehicle (AV) validation based on simulated testing requires unbiased evaluation and high efficiency. One effective solution is to increase the exposure to risky rare events while reweighting the probability measure. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-25 Yichun Ye , He Zhang , Ye Tian , Jian Sun , Karl Meinke

Autonomous vehicles have the potential to lower the accident rate when compared to human driving. Moreover, it is the driving force of the automated vehicles' rapid development over the last few years. In the higher Society of Automotive…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-08-30 Dhanoop Karunakaran , Julie Stephany Berrio , Stewart Worrall , Eduardo Nebot

Rare events are events that are expected to occur infrequently, or more technically, those that have low probabilities (say, order of $10^{-3}$ or less) of occurring according to a probability model. In the context of uncertainty…

Computation · Statistics 2015-08-21 James L. Beck , Konstantin M. Zuev

Data for training learning-enabled self-driving cars in the physical world are typically collected in a safe, normal environment. Such data distribution often engenders a strong bias towards safe driving, making self-driving cars unprepared…

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