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We propose a new approach to value-directed belief state approximation for POMDPs. The value-directed model allows one to choose approximation methods for belief state monitoring that have a small impact on decision quality. Using a vector…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Pascal Poupart , Craig Boutilier

Search is an important tool for computing effective policies in single- and multi-agent environments, and has been crucial for achieving superhuman performance in several benchmark fully and partially observable games. However, one major…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-18 Hengyuan Hu , Adam Lerer , Noam Brown , Jakob Foerster

Planning robust executions under uncertainty is a fundamental challenge for building autonomous robots. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a standard framework for modeling uncertainty in many applications. In…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-05-10 Yue Wang , Swarat Chaudhuri , Lydia E. Kavraki

Standard value function approaches to finding policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are generally considered to be intractable for large models. The intractability of these algorithms is to a large extent a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-10-05 N. Roy , G. Gordon , S. Thrun

Human coordination often relies on the ability to influence the beliefs of others through strategic action. In multi-agent reinforcement learning, opponent shaping attempts to replicate this influence, though existing methods typically…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Aarav G Sane , Karthik Sivachandran , Rohan Paleja

This paper provides an analysis of the tradeoff between asymptotic bias (suboptimality with unlimited data) and overfitting (additional suboptimality due to limited data) in the context of reinforcement learning with partial observability.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-07 Vincent Francois-Lavet , Guillaume Rabusseau , Joelle Pineau , Damien Ernst , Raphael Fonteneau

Planning under process and measurement uncertainties is a challenging problem. In its most general form it can be modeled as a Partially Observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP) problem. However POMDPs are generally difficult to solve when…

Robotics · Computer Science 2016-11-15 Mohammadhussein Rafieisakhaei , Amirhossein Tamjidi , Suman Chakravorty , P. R. Kumar

Markov decisions processes (MDPs) are becoming increasing popular as models of decision theoretic planning. While traditional dynamic programming methods perform well for problems with small state spaces, structured methods are needed for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Jesse Hoey , Robert St-Aubin , Alan Hu , Craig Boutilier

We consider the problem of imitation learning from expert demonstrations in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Belief representations, which characterize the distribution over the latent states in a POMDP, have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Tanmay Gangwani , Joel Lehman , Qiang Liu , Jian Peng

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a modeling framework for a variety of sequential decision making under uncertainty scenarios in artificial intelligence (AI). Since the states are not directly observable in a…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-05-21 Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Nils Jansen , Bo Wu , Ufuk Topcu

Autonomous agents operating in adversarial scenarios face a fundamental challenge: while they may know their adversaries' high-level objectives, such as reaching specific destinations within time constraints, the exact policies these…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-12-04 Gokul Puthumanaillam , Jae Hyuk Song , Nurzhan Yesmagambet , Shinkyu Park , Melkior Ornik

In most contemporary approaches to decision making, a decision problem is described by a sets of states and set of outcomes, and a rich set of acts, which are functions from states to outcomes over which the decision maker (DM) has…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-09-07 Lawrence Blume , David Easley , Joseph Y. Halpern

The problem of belief tracking in the presence of stochastic actions and observations is pervasive and yet computationally intractable. In this work we show however that probabilistic beliefs can be maintained in factored form exactly and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-10-01 Blai Bonet , Hector Geffner

This paper shows how we can combine logical representations of actions and decision theory in such a manner that seems natural for both. In particular we assume an axiomatization of the domain in terms of situation calculus, using what is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 David L. Poole

In automated driving, predicting and accommodating the uncertain future motion of other traffic participants is challenging, especially in unstructured environments in which the high-level intention of traffic participants is difficult to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-02-05 Tommaso Benciolini , Yuntian Yan , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

The standard problem setting in Dec-POMDPs is self-play, where the goal is to find a set of policies that play optimally together. Policies learned through self-play may adopt arbitrary conventions and implicitly rely on multi-step…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-08-19 Hengyuan Hu , Adam Lerer , Brandon Cui , David Wu , Luis Pineda , Noam Brown , Jakob Foerster

The presence of uncertainty in policy evaluation significantly complicates the process of policy ranking and selection in real-world settings. We formally consider offline policy selection as learning preferences over a set of policy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-15 Mengjiao Yang , Bo Dai , Ofir Nachum , George Tucker , Dale Schuurmans

Conformal prediction gives exact finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, but deployed systems are judged by more than coverage alone. For a fixed calibrated rule reused over a finite operational window, stakeholders also…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Petrus H. Zwart

The sum-product or belief propagation (BP) algorithm is a widely-used message-passing algorithm for computing marginal distributions in graphical models with discrete variables. At the core of the BP message updates, when applied to a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-05-28 Nima Noorshams , Martin J. Wainwright

Planning under uncertainty is a key requirement for physical systems due to the noisy nature of actuators and sensors. Using a belief space approach, planning solutions tend to generate actions that result in information seeking behavior…

Robotics · Computer Science 2015-06-08 Saurav Agarwal , Amirhossein Tamjidi , Suman Chakravorty