Related papers: Exact and approximate analytic solutions in the SI…
A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the…
The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…
Understanding infectious disease spread remains a critical public health challenge, particularly given the interplay between household dynamics and community transmission patterns. Traditional epidemiological models often oversimplify these…
We extend a recent study of susceptible-infected-removed epidemic processes with long range infection (referred to as I in the following) from 1-dimensional lattices to lattices in two dimensions. As in I we use hashing to simulate very…
Metapopulation epidemic models describe epidemic dynamics in networks of spatially distant patches connected with pathways for migration of individuals. In the present study, we deal with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
The SIR model with spatially inhomogeneous infection rate is studied with numerical simulations in one, two, and three dimensions, considering the case that the infection spreads inhomogeneously in densely populated regions or hot spots. We…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
Deterministic compartmental models are predominantly used in the modeling of infectious diseases, though stochastic models are considered more realistic, yet are complicated to estimate due to missing data. In this paper we present a novel…
An epidemic model with births and deaths is considered on a two dimensional LxL lattice. Each individual can have global infective contacts according to the standard SIR model rules or local infective contacts with its nearest neighbors. We…
We study the extinction of epidemics in a simplicial susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where each susceptible individual becomes infected either by two-body interactions ($S+I \to 2I$) with a rate $\beta$ or by three-body interactions…
The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
We study the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly over all graphs with certain critical, heavy-tailed degree distributions. For this model, each vertex infects all its susceptible neighbors and…
In this work we performed a numerical study of an epidemic model that mimics the endemic state of whooping cough in the pre-vaccine era. We considered a stochastic SIR model on dynamical networks that involve local and global contacts among…
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study…
Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model, an analytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients. The analytical curve is fitted to data in Belgium, France, New York City and…
We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The…
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…
Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…
There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…