Related papers: Modeling COVID-19 Spread in Small Colleges
As of July, 2020, acute respiratory syndrome caused by coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading over the world and causing severe economic damages. While minimizing human contact is effective in managing the outbreak, it causes severe economic…
Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines person-centric data-driven human mobility…
This paper reports a case study of an application of high-resolution agent-based modeling and simulation to pandemic response planning on a university campus. In the summer of 2020, we were tasked with a COVID-19 pandemic response project…
The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for mathematical models that can project epidemic trends and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. To forecast the transmission of COVID-19, a major challenge is the accurate…
The COVID-19 crisis has shown that we can only prevent the risk of mass contagion through timely, large-scale, coordinated, and decisive actions. However, frequently the models used by experts [from whom decision-makers get their main…
The spread of an undesirable contact process, such as an infectious disease (e.g. COVID-19), is contained through testing and isolation of infected nodes. The temporal and spatial evolution of the process (along with containment through…
The spreading of virus infection is here simulated over artificial human networks. Here, the real-space urban life of people is modeled as a scale-free network with constraints. A scale-free network has been adopted for modeling on-line…
Modern Bayesian approaches and workflows emphasize in how simulation is important in the context of model developing. Simulation can help researchers understand how the model behaves in a controlled setting and can be used to stress the…
The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management,…
A phenomenological model to describe the Corona Virus(covid-19) Pandemic spread in a given population is developed. It enables the identification of the key quantities required to form adequate policies for control and mitigation in terms…
The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly confirmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the…
We study the spreading of an infection within an SIS epidemiological model on a network. Susceptible agents are given the opportunity of breaking their links with infected agents, and reconnecting those links with the rest of the…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, case isolation emerged as a key non-pharmaceutical intervention in pandemic response. Its effectiveness hinges on the timing of isolation, which is often dictated by the onset of contagiousness. While…
We present an open source model that allows quantitative prediction of the effects of testing on the rate of spread of COVID-19 described by R, the reproduction number, and on the degree of quarantine, isolation and lockdown required to…
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…
Masks are used as part of a comprehensive strategy of measures to limit transmission and save lives during the COVID-19 pandemic. Research about the impact of mask-wearing in the COVID-19 pandemic has raised formidable interest across…
The dynamics of infection spread in populations has received popular attention since the outbreak of Covid-19 and many statistical models have been developed. One of the interesting areas of research is short-time dynamics in confined,…
In the new paradigm of health-centric governance, policy makers are in a constant need for appropriate metrics and estimates in order to determine the best policies in a non-arbitrary fashion. Thus, in this paper, a compartmentalized model…
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a surge in computational models to simulate disease dynamics and guide interventions. Agent-based models (ABMs) are well-suited to capture population and environmental heterogeneity, but their rapid deployment…
The infectious coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a serious global pandemic. Different studies have shown that increasing temperature can play a crucial role in the spread of the virus. Most of these studies were limited to…