Related papers: Modeling COVID-19 Spread in Small Colleges

Residential colleges and universities face unique challenges in providing in-person instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic. Administrators are currently faced with decisions about whether to open during the pandemic and what modifications…

Restarting public buildings activities in the "second phase" of COVID-19 emergency should be supported by operational measures to avoid a second virus spreading. Buildings hosting the continuous presence of the same users and significant…

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to its extremely high infectivity, has been spreading rapidly around the world and bringing huge influence to socioeconomic development as well as people's daily life. Taking for example the virus…

Airborne transmission is now believed to be the primary way that COVID-19 spreads. We study the airborne transmission risk associated with holding in-person classes on university campuses. We utilize a model for airborne transmission risk…

The COVID-19 pandemic began over two years ago, yet schools, businesses, and other organizations are still struggling to keep the risk of disease outbreak low while returning to (near) normal functionality. Observations from these past…

Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…

A contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing…

We construct an agent-based SEIR model to simulate COVID-19 spread at a 16000-student mostly non-residential urban university during the Fall 2021 Semester. We find that mRNA vaccine coverage above 80% makes it possible to safely reopen to…

Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…

This research was done during the DOMath program at Duke University from May 18 to July 10, 2020. At the time, Duke and other universities across the country were wrestling with the question of how to safely welcome students back to campus…

Recent re-opening policies in the US, following a period of social distancing measures, introduced a significant increase in daily COVID-19 infections, calling for a roll-back or substantial revisiting of these policies in many states. The…

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities and the general population are striving to achieve a balance between safety and normalcy. Ever changing conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools to…

This paper develops an agent-based disease spread model on a contact network in an effort to guide efforts at surveillance testing in small to moderate facilities such as nursing homes and meat-packing plants. The model employs Monte Carlo…

Current models of COVID-19 transmission predict infection from reported or assumed interactions. Here we leverage high-resolution observations of interaction to simulate infectious processes. Ultra-Wide Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)…

University buildings are significant closed built environments for COVID-19 spreading. As universities prepare to re-start in-class activities, students' adherence to physical distancing requirements is a priority topic. While physical…

Touristic cities will suffer from COVID-19 emergency because of its economic impact on their communities. The first emergency phases involved a wide closure of such areas to support "social distancing" measures (i.e. travels limitation;…

Disruptions of university campuses caused by COVID-19 have motivated strategies to prevent the spread of infectious diseases while maintaining some level of in person learning. In response, the proposed approach recursively applied a…

We propose an epidemiological model that includes the mobility patterns of the individuals, in the spirit to those considered in (Barmak, 2011, 2016) and (Medus, 2011). We assume that people move around in a city of 120x120 blocks with 300…

This study introduces a stochastic model of COVID-19 transmission tailored to the Colorado School of Mines campus and evaluates surveillance testing strategies within a university context. Enhancing the conventional SEIR framework with…

Mathematical and simulation models are often used to predict the spread of a disease and estimate the impact of public health interventions, and many such models have been developed and used during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper…