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One of the main goals in non-life insurance is to estimate the claims reserve distribution. A generalized time series model, that allows for modeling the conditional mean and variance of the claim amounts, is proposed for the claims…

Applications · Statistics 2013-06-20 Michal Pešta , Ostap Okhrin

We study the data-driven selection of causal graphical models using constraint-based algorithms, which determine the existence or non-existence of edges (causal connections) in a graph based on testing a series of conditional independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Daniel Malinsky

Bell non-local correlations cannot be naturally explained in a fixed causal structure. This serves as a motivation for considering models where no global assumption is made beyond logical consistency. The assumption of a fixed causal order…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-04-06 Ämin Baumeler , Stefan Wolf

Classical and more recent tests for detecting distributional changes in multivariate time series often lack power against alternatives that involve changes in the cross-sectional dependence structure. To be able to detect such changes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-16 Axel Bücher , Ivan Kojadinovic , Tom Rohmer , Johan Segers

It is often stated in papers tackling the task of inferring Bayesian network structures from data that there are these two distinct approaches: (i) Apply conditional independence tests when testing for the presence or otherwise of edges;…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Robert G. Cowell

In this paper, the maximal nonlinear conditional correlation of two random vectors $X$ and $Y$ given another random vector $Z$, denoted by $\rho_1(X,Y|Z)$, is defined as a measure of conditional association, which satisfies certain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-20 Tzee-Ming Huang

The validity OF a causal model can be tested ONLY IF the model imposes constraints ON the probability distribution that governs the generated data. IN the presence OF unmeasured variables, causal models may impose two types OF constraints :…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

Several studies on heritability in twins aim at understanding the different contribution of environmental and genetic factors to specific traits. Considering the National Merit Twin Study, our purpose is to correctly analyse the influence…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-04 Luciana Dalla Valle , Fabrizio Leisen , Luca Rossini

Causality imposes strong restrictions on the type of operators that may be observables in relativistic quantum theories. In fact, causal violations arise when computing conditional probabilities for certain partial causally connected…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-11-07 Rodolfo Gambini , Rafael A. Porto

The possibility of unmeasured confounding is one of the main limitations for causal inference from observational studies. There are different methods for (partially) empirically assessing the plausibility of unconfoundedness. However, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Fernando Pires Hartwig , Kate Tilling , George Davey Smith

The study of dependence between random variables under external influences is a challenging problem in multivariate analysis. We address this by proposing a novel semi-parametric approach for conditional copula models using Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Tathagata Basu , Fabrizio Leisen , Cristiano Villa , Kevin Wilson

We propose a sequential, anytime-valid method to test the conditional independence of a response $Y$ and a predictor $X$ given a random vector $Z$. The proposed test is based on e-statistics and test martingales, which generalize likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-22 Peter Grünwald , Alexander Henzi , Tyron Lardy

Vine copulas are a flexible tool for multivariate non-Gaussian distributions. For data from an observational study where the explanatory variables and response variables are measured together, a proposed vine copula regression method uses…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-30 Bo Chang , Harry Joe

Conditional independence is a fundamental concept in many areas of statistical research, including, for example, sufficient dimension reduction, causal inference, and statistical graphical models. In many modern applications, data arise in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Yin Tang , Bing Li

A new index based on empirical copulas, termed the Copula Statistic (CoS), is introduced for assessing the strength of multivariate dependence and for testing statistical independence. New properties of the copulas are proved. They allow us…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-22 Mohsen Ben Hassine , Lamine Mili , Kiran Karra

Copulas are mathematical objects that fully capture the dependence structure among random variables and hence, offer a great flexibility in building multivariate stochastic models. In statistics, a copula is used as a general way of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-01 Abhik Ghosh , Aritra Chakravorty

We study the problem of conditional two-sample testing, which aims to determine whether two populations have the same distribution after accounting for confounding factors. This problem commonly arises in various applications, such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Seongchan Lee , Suman Cha , Ilmun Kim

Contextuality and entanglement are valuable resources for quantum computing and quantum information. Bell inequalities are used to certify entanglement; thus, it is important to understand why and how they are violated. Quantum mechanics…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-08-30 Marian Kupczynski

Conditional copulas are flexible statistical tools that couple joint conditional and marginal conditional distributions. In a linear regression setting with more than one covariate and two dependent outcomes, we propose the use of additive…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-31 Avideh Sabeti , Mian Wei , Radu V. Craiu

Conformal prediction methodology has recently been extended to the covariate shift setting, where the distribution of covariates differs between training and test data. While existing results ensure that the prediction sets from these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Mehrdad Pournaderi , Yu Xiang
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