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We consider the problem of inference after model selection under weak assumptions in the time series setting. Even when the data are not independent, we show that sample splitting remains asymptotically valid as long as the process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-27 Robert Lunde

The bootstrap is a popular method of constructing confidence intervals due to its ease of use and broad applicability. Theoretical properties of bootstrap procedures have been established in a variety of settings. However, there is limited…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-19 Zhou Tang , Ted Westling

Non-random sample selection is a commonplace amongst many empirical studies and it appears when an output variable of interest is available only for a restricted non-random sub-sample of data. We introduce an extension of the generalized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-18 M. Wojtyś , G. Marra

In the last decade, simplified vine copula models have been an active area of research. They build a high dimensional probability density from the product of marginals densities and bivariate copula densities. Besides parametric models,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-29 Thomas Nagler , Christian Schellhase , Claudia Czado

Measuring dependence between two events, or equivalently between two binary random variables, amounts to expressing the dependence structure inherent in a $2\times 2$ contingency table in a real number between $-1$ and $1$. Countless such…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-13 Marc-Oliver Pohle , Timo Dimitriadis , Jan-Lukas Wermuth

Modeling of high order multivariate probability distribution is a difficult problem which occurs in many fields. Copula approach is a good choice for this purpose, but the curse of dimensionality still remains a problem. In this paper we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-09-16 Edith Kovacs , Tamas Szantai

We consider here together the inference questions and the change-point problem in Poisson autoregressions (see Tj{\o}stheim, 2012). The conditional mean (or intensity) of the process is involved as a non-linear function of it past values…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-09 Paul Doukhan , William Kengne

Constraint-based causal discovery algorithms utilize many statistical tests for conditional independence to uncover networks of causal dependencies. These approaches to causal discovery rely on an assumed correspondence between the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-18 Bijan Mazaheri , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

We show that the stochastic independence of real-valued random variables is equivalent to the conditional uncorrelation, where the conditioning takes place over the Cartesian products of intervals. Next, we express the mutual independence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Dawid Tarłowski

In this paper, we introduce quantile coherency to measure general dependence structures emerging in the joint distribution in the frequency domain and argue that this type of dependence is natural for economic time series but remains…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-31 Jozef Baruník , Tobias Kley

In this paper, we discuss the non-collapsibility concept and propose a new approach based on Dirichlet process mixtures to estimate the conditional effect of covariates in non-collapsible models. Using synthetic data, we evaluate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-09 Sepehr Akhavan Masouleh , Babak Shahbaba , Daniel L. Gillen

Our goal in this paper is to propose an alternative risk measure which takes into account the fluctuations of losses and possible correlations between random variables. This new notion of risk measures, that we call Copula Conditional Tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-20 Brahim Brahimi

Several studies on heritability in twins aim at understanding the different contribution of environmental and genetic factors to specific traits. Considering the National Merit Twin Study, our purpose is to correctly analyse the influence…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-04 Luciana Dalla Valle , Fabrizio Leisen , Luca Rossini

In this paper we study the asymptotic behaviour of empirical processes when parameters are estimated, assuming that the underlying sequence of random variables is long-range dependent. We show completely different phenomena compared to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Rafal Kulik

We investigate the Large Deviations properties of bootstrapped empirical measure with exchangeable weights. Our main result shows in great generality how the resulting rate function combines the LD properties of both the sample weights and…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-10-24 José Trashorras , Olivier Wintenberger

The paper presents a new copula based method for measuring dependence between random variables. Our approach extends the Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the copula of the joint distribution. We prove that this approach has several advantageous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Barnabas Poczos , Zoubin Ghahramani , Jeff Schneider

The bootstrap is a popular and convenient method for quantifying the authority of an empirical ordering of attributes, for example of a ranking of the performance of institutions or of the influence of genes on a response variable. In the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Peter Hall , Hugh Miller

This paper develops a general inferential framework for discrete copulas on finite supports in any dimension. The copula of a multivariate discrete distribution is defined as Csiszar's I-projection (i.e., the minimum-Kullback-Leibler…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Gery Geenens , Ivan Kojadinovic , Tommaso Martini

All too often measuring statistical dependencies between financial time series is reduced to a linear correlation coefficient. However this may not capture all facets of reality. We study empirical dependencies of daily stock returns by…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-01 Marcel Wollschläger , Rudi Schäfer

Recent work has focused on the potential and pitfalls of causal identification in observational studies with multiple simultaneous treatments. Building on previous work, we show that even if the conditional distribution of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Jiajing Zheng , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks