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Directional data require specialized probability models because of the non-Euclidean and periodic nature of their domain. When a directional variable is observed jointly with linear variables, modeling their dependence adds an additional…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-22 Tong Zou , Hal S. Stern

We propose a new approach to constructing a neural network for predicting expectations of stochastic differential equations. The proposed method does not need data sets of inputs and outputs; instead, the information obtained from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Naoki Sugishita , Jun Ohkubo

Deep kernel learning combines the non-parametric flexibility of kernel methods with the inductive biases of deep learning architectures. We propose a novel deep kernel learning model and stochastic variational inference procedure which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-03 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Zhiting Hu , Ruslan Salakhutdinov , Eric P. Xing

We introduce a new version of deep state-space models (DSSMs) that combines a recurrent neural network with a state-space framework to forecast time series data. The model estimates the observed series as functions of latent variables that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-20 Haoxuan Wu , David S. Matteson , Martin T. Wells

Probabilistic deep learning is deep learning that accounts for uncertainty, both model uncertainty and data uncertainty. It is based on the use of probabilistic models and deep neural networks. We distinguish two approaches to probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Daniel T. Chang

Recent advances in Neural Variational Inference allowed for a renaissance in latent variable models in a variety of domains involving high-dimensional data. While traditional variational methods derive an analytical approximation for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-20 Alexander I. Cowen-Rivers , Pasquale Minervini , Tim Rocktaschel , Matko Bosnjak , Sebastian Riedel , Jun Wang

Time series, spatial data, and images are natural applications of Neural Processes. However, when such data exhibit strong periodicity and quasi-periodicity, existing methods often suffer from underfitting and generalise poorly beyond the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Xianhe Chen , Hao Chen , Yingzhen Li

Stochastic graph neural networks (SGNNs) are information processing architectures that learn representations from data over random graphs. SGNNs are trained with respect to the expected performance, which comes with no guarantee about…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-22 Zhan Gao , Elvin Isufi

Supervised models of NLP rely on large collections of text which closely resemble the intended testing setting. Unfortunately matching text is often not available in sufficient quantity, and moreover, within any domain of text, data is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-06-10 Yitong Li , Timothy Baldwin , Trevor Cohn

We apply supervised deep neural networks (DNNs) for pricing and calibration of both vanilla and exotic options under both diffusion and pure jump processes with and without stochastic volatility. We train our neural network models under…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-18 Ali Hirsa , Tugce Karatas , Amir Oskoui

The highly irregular spiking activity of cortical neurons and behavioral variability suggest that the brain could operate in a fundamentally probabilistic way. Mimicking how the brain implements and learns probabilistic computation could be…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Yang Qi , Zhichao Zhu , Yiming Wei , Lu Cao , Zhigang Wang , Jie Zhang , Wenlian Lu , Jianfeng Feng

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) use a neural network to model the instantaneous rate of change in the state of a system. However, despite their apparent suitability for dynamics-governed time-series, NODEs present a few…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-18 Alexander Norcliffe , Cristian Bodnar , Ben Day , Jacob Moss , Pietro Liò

We propose a probabilistic framework for developing computational models of biological neural systems. In this framework, physiological recordings are viewed as discrete-time partial observations of an underlying continuous-time stochastic…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-02-10 Ahmed ElGazzar , Marcel van Gerven

Non-parametric models, such as Gaussian Processes (GP), show promising results in the analysis of complex data. Their applications in neuroscience data have recently gained traction. In this research, we introduce a novel neural decoder…

Deep generative models parameterized by neural networks have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning. We extend deep generative models with auxiliary variables which improves the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-17 Lars Maaløe , Casper Kaae Sønderby , Søren Kaae Sønderby , Ole Winther

Neural network approaches for meta-learning distributions over functions have desirable properties such as increased flexibility and a reduced complexity of inference. Building on the successes of denoising diffusion models for generative…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-08 Vincent Dutordoir , Alan Saul , Zoubin Ghahramani , Fergus Simpson

Neural processes (NPs) are models for transfer learning with properties reminiscent of Gaussian Processes (GPs). They are adept at modelling data consisting of few observations of many related functions on the same input space and are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Miguel Garcia-Ortegon , Andreas Bender , Sergio Bacallado

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have performed admirably in classification tasks. However, the characterization of their classification uncertainties, required for certain applications, has been lacking. In this work, we investigate the issue…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Yu Pan , Kwo-Sen Kuo , Michael L. Rilee , Hongfeng Yu

We introduce stochastic variational inference for Gaussian process models. This enables the application of Gaussian process (GP) models to data sets containing millions of data points. We show how GPs can be vari- ationally decomposed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-27 James Hensman , Nicolo Fusi , Neil D. Lawrence

Deep neural networks can be roughly divided into deterministic neural networks and stochastic neural networks.The former is usually trained to achieve a mapping from input space to output space via maximum likelihood estimation for the…