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We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Isaac Lavine , Michael Lindon , Mike West

Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) on graphs were introduced by Cerrai and Freidlin [Ann. Inst. Henri Poincar\'e Probab. Stat. 53 (2017) 865-899]. This class of stochastic equations in infinite dimensions provides a minimal…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-12 Wai-Tong Louis Fan

This study examines the challenges of modeling complex and noisy data related to socioeconomic factors over time, with a focus on data from various districts in Odisha, India. Traditional time-series models struggle to capture both trends…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Sandeep Kumar Samota , Reema Gupta , Snehashish Chakraverty

We construct flexible spatio-temporal models through stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) where both diffusion and advection can be spatially varying. Computations are done through a Gaussian Markov random field approximation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Martin Outzen Berild , Geir-Arne Fuglstad

We consider a class of dissipative stochastic differential equations (SDE's) with time-periodic coefficients in finite dimension, and the response of time-asymptotic probability measures induced by such SDE's to sufficiently regular, small…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-04 Michal Branicki , Kenneth Uda

In this paper, we introduce a class of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) with fractional time-derivatives, and study the $L_2$-theory of the equations. This class of SPDEs can be used to describe random effects on transport…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-08 Zhen-Qing Chen , Kyeong-Hun Kim , Panki Kim

The efficient representation of random fields on geometrically complex domains is crucial for Bayesian modelling in engineering and machine learning. Today's prevalent random field representations are either intended for unbounded domains…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Kim Jie Koh , Fehmi Cirak

This paper proposes a novel low-rank approximation to the multivariate State-Space Model. The Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach is applied component-wise to the independent-in-time Mat\'ern Gaussian innovation term in…

Deterministic flow models, such as rectified flows, offer a general framework for learning a deterministic transport map between two distributions, realized as the vector field for an ordinary differential equation (ODE). However, they are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Saurabh Singh , Ian Fischer

We study a new class of McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (SDEs), possibly with common noise, applying the theory of time-inhomogeneous polynomial processes. The drift and volatility coefficients of these SDEs depend on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-27 Christa Cuchiero , Janka Möller

Recently, stochastic, as opposed to deterministic, parameterizations are being investigated to model the effects of unresolved subgrid scales (SGS) in large eddy simulations (LES) of geophysical flows. We analyse such a stochastic approach…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jinqiao Duan , Balasubramanya T. Nadiga

Stochastic evolution underpins several approaches to the dynamics of open quantum systems, such as random modulation of Hamiltonian parameters, the stochastic Schrodinger equation (SSE), and the stochastic Liouville equation (SLE). These…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-22 Pietro De Checchi , Federico Gallina , Barbara Fresch , Giulio G. Giusteri

This paper deals with the problem of efficient sampling from a stochastic differential equation, given the drift function and the diffusion matrix. The proposed approach leverages a recent model for probabilities \cite{rudi2021psd} (the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-25 Anant Raj , Umut Şimşekli , Alessandro Rudi

We study the dynamics of a continuous-time model of the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) for the least-square problem. Indeed, pursuing the work of Li et al. (2019), we analyze Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) that model SGD either…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-03 Adrien Schertzer , Loucas Pillaud-Vivien

We consider the problem of variational Bayesian inference in a latent variable model where a (possibly complex) observed stochastic process is governed by the solution of a latent stochastic differential equation (SDE). Motivated by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-22 Sebastian Zeng , Florian Graf , Roland Kwitt

We study fully nonlinear second-order (forward) stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). They can also be viewed as forward path-dependent PDEs (PPDEs) and will be treated as rough PDEs (RPDEs) under a unified framework. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Rainer Buckdahn , Christian Keller , Jin Ma , Jianfeng Zhang

The study presents a general framework for discovering underlying Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) using measured spatiotemporal data. The method, called Sparse Spatiotemporal System Discovery ($\text{S}^3\text{d}$), decides which…

Understanding sustainability through modeling involves one of the complex and interdisciplinary activities where mathematics plays a key role. We provide arguments favoring the need for developing global models for measuring the status of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-15 Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao , Sireesh Saride

We propose a methodology to address two analysis problems concerning complex systems, namely bounding state functionals of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and verifying set avoidance of systems described by partial differential…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-30 Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Giorgio Valmorbida , Antonis Papachristodoulou

Latent stochastic differential equation (SDE) models are important tools for the unsupervised discovery of dynamical systems from data, with applications ranging from engineering to neuroscience. In these complex domains, exact posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Amber Hu , Henry Smith , Scott Linderman