Related papers: Strong consistent model selection for general caus…
We study the use of Temporal-Difference learning for estimating the structural parameters in dynamic discrete choice models. Our algorithms are based on the conditional choice probability approach but use functional approximations to…
Practitioners making decisions based on causal effects typically ignore structural uncertainty. We analyze when this uncertainty is consequential enough to warrant methodological solutions (Bayesian model averaging over competing causal…
This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…
We address a specific but recurring problem related to sampled linear systems. In particular, we provide a numerical method for the rigorous verification of constraint satisfaction for linear continuous-time systems between sampling…
This paper introduces a likelihood ratio (LR)-type test that possesses the robustness properties of \(C(\alpha)\)-type procedures in an extremum estimation setting. The test statistic is constructed by applying separate adjustments to the…
In this paper, we develop a complete methodology for detecting time-varying/non time-varying parameters in ARCH processes. For this purpose, we estimate and test various semiparametric versions of the time-varying ARCH model (tv-ARCH) which…
In statistical research there usually exists a choice between structurally simpler or more complex models. We argue that, even if a more complex, locally stationary time series model were true, then a simple, stationary time series model…
We study the predictability of emergent phenomena in complex systems. Using nearest neighbor, one-dimensional Cellular Automata (CA) as an example, we show how to construct local coarse-grained descriptions of CA in all classes of Wolfram's…
Harrel's concordance index is a commonly used discrimination metric for survival models, particularly for models where the relative ordering of the risk of individuals is time-independent, such as the proportional hazards model. There are…
In this paper we propose a general framework to analyze prediction in time series models and show how a wide class of popular time series models satisfies this framework. We postulate a set of high-level assumptions, and formally verify…
We suggest general methods to construct asymptotically uniformly valid confidence intervals post-model-selection. The constructions are based on principles recently proposed by Berk et al. (2013). In particular the candidate models used can…
Structural Nested Mean Models (SNMMs) are useful for causal inference of treatment effects in longitudinal observational studies. Most existing works assume that the data are collected at pre-fixed time points for all subjects, which,…
Among semiparametric regression models, partially linear additive models provide a useful tool to include additive nonparametric components as well as a parametric component, when explaining the relationship between the response and a set…
In this paper the problems of the retrospective analysis of models with time-varying structure are considered. These models include contamination models with randomly switching parameters and multivariate classification models with an…
We derive a general criterion for the convergence of clock processes in random dynamics in random environments that is applicable in cases when correlations are not negligible, extending recent results by Gayrard [(2010), (2011),…
We consider the stochastic gradient method with random reshuffling ($\mathsf{RR}$) for tackling smooth nonconvex optimization problems. $\mathsf{RR}$ finds broad applications in practice, notably in training neural networks. In this work,…
The autoregressive process of order $p$ (AR($p$)) is a central model in time series analysis. A Bayesian approach requires the user to define a prior distribution for the coefficients of the AR($p$) model. Although it is easy to write down…
In this paper the class of ARCH$(\infty)$ models is generalized to the nonstationary class of ARCH$(\infty)$ models with time-varying coefficients. For fixed time points, a stationary approximation is given leading to the notation ``locally…
As a specific proportional hazard rates model, sequential order statistics can be used to describe the lifetimes of load-sharing systems. Inference for these systems needs to account for small sample sizes, which are prevalent in…
In this paper we present a robust estimator for the parameters of a continuous-time ARMA(p,q) (CARMA(p,q)) process sampled equidistantly which is not necessarily Gaussian. Therefore, an indirect estimation procedure is used. It is an…