Related papers: Reforming the State-Based Forward Guidance through…

This paper empirically assesses predictions of Goodwin's model of cyclical growth regarding demand and distributive regimes when integrating the real and financial sectors. In addition, it evaluates how financial and employment shocks…

This paper aims to reevaluate the Taylor Rule, through a linear and a nonlinear method, such that its estimated federal funds rates match those actually previously implemented by the Federal Reserve Bank. In the linear method, this paper…

The rise of foundation models marks a paradigm shift in machine learning: instead of training specialized models from scratch, foundation models are first trained on massive datasets before being adapted or fine-tuned to make predictions on…

The implementation of a supervision and incentive process for identical workers may lead to wage variance that stems from employer and employee optimization. The harder it is to assess the nature of the labor output, the more important such…

We revisit the results of Harvie (2000) and show how correcting for a reporting mistake in some of the estimated parameter values leads to significantly different conclusions, including realistic parameter values for the Philips curve and…

The standard wage Phillips curve aggregates away from which workers reset wages when. I show this aggregation omits a first-order term: the covariance between workers' cost-push exposure and their reset frequency. I introduce two sufficient…

Historical studies of labor markets frequently lack data on individual income. The occupational income score (OCCSCORE) is often used as an alternative measure of labor market outcomes. We consider the consequences of using OCCSCORE when…

Error bound conditions (EBC) are properties that characterize the growth of an objective function when a point is moved away from the optimal set. They have recently received increasing attention in the field of optimization for developing…

We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…

The average and median income dependence on work experience and time is analyzed and modeled for the USA. The original data set providing the mean and median income estimates in 10 year long intervals spans a long time period of almost 35…

In this paper we study empirically the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) of 5 different currencies. We confirm and extend the findings of our previous investigation of the U.S. Forward Rate Curve. In particular, the average FRC follows a square-root…

This paper studies identification and inference of the welfare gain that results from switching from one policy (such as the status quo policy) to another policy. The welfare gain is not point identified in general when data are obtained…

This paper develops a sufficient-statistic formula for the unemployment gap -- the difference between the actual unemployment rate and the efficient unemployment rate. While lowering unemployment puts more people into work, it forces firms…

The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with…

The aim of the present paper is to provide criteria for a central bank of how to choose among different monetary-policy rules when caring about a number of policy targets such as the output gap and expected inflation. Special attention is…

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE)…

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial…

This paper addresses the structure and dynamics of an open market economy and its relations with the real interest rate. In this respect, the paper is situated within a broad conventional literature. However, it departs from the standard…

How much credit (or blame) should an action taken in a state get for a future reward? This is the fundamental temporal credit assignment problem in Reinforcement Learning (RL). One of the earliest and still most widely used heuristics is to…

We provide two methodological insights on \emph{ex ante} policy evaluation for macro models of economic development. First, we show that the problems of parameter instability and lack of behavioral constancy can be overcome by considering…