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Infectious diseases remain one of the major causes of human mortality and suffering. Mathematical models have been established as an important tool for capturing the features that drive the spread of the disease, predicting the progression…
Objectives: Our research adopts computational techniques to analyze disease outbreaks weekly over a large geographic area while maintaining local-level analysis by incorporating relevant high-spatial resolution cultural and environmental…
Plasmodium falciparum malaria still poses one of the greatest threats to human life with over 200 million cases globally leading to half-million deaths annually. Of these, 90% of cases and of the mortality occurs in sub-Saharan Africa,…
The latest WHO report showed that the number of malaria cases climbed to 219 million last year, two million higher than last year. The global efforts to fight malaria have hit a plateau and the most significant underlying reason is…
Model-based disease mapping remains a fundamental policy-informing tool in the fields of public health and disease surveillance. Hierarchical Bayesian models have emerged as the state-of-the-art approach for disease mapping since they are…
Understanding the prevalence of key demographic and health indicators in small geographic areas and domains is of global interest, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where vital registration data is sparse and household…
Malaria remains a serious health challenge in the Comoros Islands, despite ongoing control efforts. Past studies have shown reductions in cases due to prevention and treatment measures, but little work has been done to forecast future…
The study was conducted to develop an appropriate model that could predict the weekly reported Malaria incidence in the Philippines using the Box-Jenkins method.The data were retrieved from the Department of Health(DOH) website in the…
Determining the distribution of disease prevalence among heterogeneous populations at the national scale is fundamental for epidemiology and public health. Here, we use a combination of methods (spatial scan statistic, topological data…
Malaria remains a significant public health challenge in many regions, necessitating robust predictive models to aid in its management and prevention. This study focuses on developing and evaluating time series models for forecasting…
Local estimates of HIV-prevalence provide information that can be used to target interventions and consequently increase the efficiency of the resources. This closer-to-optimal allocation can lead to better health outcomes, including the…
Malaria is a mosquito-borne, lethal disease that affects millions and kills hundreds of thousands of people each year. In this paper, we develop a model for allocating malaria interventions across geographic regions and time, subject to…
Maps have long been been used to visualise estimates of spatial variables, in particular disease burden and risk. Predictions made using a geostatistical model have uncertainty that typically varies spatially. However, this uncertainty is…
In tropical regions, populations continue to suffer morbidity and mortality from malaria and arboviral diseases. In Kedougou (Senegal), these illnesses are all endemic due to the climate and its geographical position. The co-circulation of…
According to the WHO, in 2021, about 32% of pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa were infected with malaria during pregnancy. Malaria infection during pregnancy can cause various adverse birth outcomes such as low birthweight. Over the past…
Background Elimination of malaria can only be achieved through removal of all vectors or complete depletion of the infectious reservoir in humans. Mechanistic models can be built to synthesize diverse observations from the field collected…
Multiple diagnostic tests are often used due to limited resources or because they provide complementary information on the epidemiology of a disease under investigation. Existing statistical methods to combine prevalence data from multiple…
With over 50% of the country's population at risk of contracting malaria despite the introduction of several measures to combat the disease, Zimbabwe is one of the eight countries in the Malaria Elimination 8 platform of the Southern…
The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission…
This paper develops mathematical tools to estimate seasonal changes in measles transmission rates and corresponding variation in population susceptibility. The tools are designed to leverage times series of cases in the absence of…