Related papers: Physics-informed machine learning for the COVID-19…

Policy-makers require data-driven tools to assess the spread of COVID-19 and inform the public of their risk of infection on an ongoing basis. We propose a rigorous hybrid model-and-data-driven approach to risk scoring based on a…

We propose a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model of the epidemic COVID-19 involving asymptomatic infections and vaccinations to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters. The forecast by our deterministic…

Accurate forecasts of the number of newly infected people during an epidemic are critical for making effective timely decisions. This paper addresses this challenge using the SIMLR model, which incorporates machine learning (ML) into the…

Based on the SIRD-model a new model including time-delay is proposed for a description of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. All data were analysed by representing all quantities as a function of the susceptible…

In this paper, we introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of…

This work covers the analysis of the COVID 19 spread in different countries and dealing the main feature of COVID 19 growth, which is the spread due to the social-contact structure, which is governed by the parameter \b{eta}. The dependency…

The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic's consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in…

During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…

By the end of July 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had infected more than seventeen million people and had spread to almost all countries worldwide. In response, many countries all over the world have used different methods to reduce the…

To combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the world has vaccination, plasma therapy, herd immunity, and epidemiological interventions as few possible options. The COVID-19 vaccine development is underway and it may take a…

The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly evolved into an unprecedented crisis. The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model and its variants have been used for modeling the pandemic. However, time-independent parameters in the classical…

Social distancing has been the only effective way to contain the spread of an infectious disease prior to the availability of the pharmaceutical treatment. It can lower the infection rate of the disease at the economic cost. A pandemic…

As a reaction to the high infectiousness and lethality of the COVID-19 virus, countries around the world have adopted drastic policy measures to contain the pandemic. However, it remains unclear which effect these measures, so-called…

We study the SIR epidemiological model, with a variable contagion rate, applied to the evolution of COVID19 in Cuba. It is highlighted that an increase in the predictive character depends on understanding the dynamics for the temporal…

Between the years 2020 to 2022, the world was hit by the pandemic of COVID-19 giving rise to an extremely grave situation. The global economy was badly hurt due to the consequences of various intervention strategies (like social distancing,…

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper…

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world producing a substantial number of fatalities accompanied by a major disruption in their social, financial, and educational organization. The strict disciplinary measures…

The rampant coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has brought global crisis with its deadly spread to more than 180 countries, and about 3,519,901 confirmed cases along with 247,630 deaths globally as on May 4, 2020. The absence of any active…