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Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Variational Autoencoders are powerful models for unsupervised learning. However deep models with several layers of dependent stochastic variables are difficult to train which limits the improvements obtained using these highly expressive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-30 Casper Kaae Sønderby , Tapani Raiko , Lars Maaløe , Søren Kaae Sønderby , Ole Winther

Variance reduction is a family of powerful mechanisms for stochastic optimization that appears to be helpful in many machine learning tasks. It is based on estimating the exact gradient with some recursive sequences. Previously, many papers…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-07 Aleksandr Shestakov , Valery Parfenov , Aleksandr Beznosikov

The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-24 Martin Tegnér , Stephen Roberts

Stochastic processes defined on integer valued state spaces are popular within the physical and biological sciences. These models are necessary for capturing the dynamics of small systems where the individual nature of the populations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-15 Luke O'Loughlin , John Maclean , Andrew Black

Given a reference model that includes all the available variables, projection predictive inference replaces its posterior with a constrained projection including only a subset of all variables. We extend projection predictive inference to…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-13 Alejandro Catalina , Paul Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

We propose a penalized likelihood framework for estimating multiple precision matrices from different classes. Most existing methods either incorporate no information on relationships between the precision matrices, or require this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Bradley S. Price , Aaron J. Molstad , Ben Sherwood

Considering the increasing size of available data, the need for statistical methods that control the finite sample bias is growing. This is mainly due to the frequent settings where the number of variables is large and allowed to increase…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-12 Stéphane Guerrier , Mucyo Karemera , Samuel Orso , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser

Latent factor model estimation typically relies on either using domain knowledge to manually pick several observed covariates as factor proxies, or purely conducting multivariate analysis such as principal component analysis. However, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-04 Runzhe Wan , Yingying Li , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song

Generalized latent factor analysis not only provides a useful latent embedding approach in statistics and machine learning, but also serves as a widely used tool across various scientific fields, such as psychometrics, econometrics, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-11 Chengyu Cui , Gongjun Xu

Uncertainty estimation aims to evaluate the confidence of a trained deep neural network. However, existing uncertainty estimation approaches rely on low-dimensional distributional assumptions and thus suffer from the high dimensionality of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Tsai Hor Chan , Kin Wai Lau , Jiajun Shen , Guosheng Yin , Lequan Yu

Latent variable models (LVMs) represent observed variables by parameterized functions of latent variables. Prominent examples of LVMs for unsupervised learning are probabilistic PCA or probabilistic SC which both assume a weighted linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Hamid Mousavi , Jakob Drefs , Florian Hirschberger , Jörg Lücke

Regression models with both high-dimensional responses and covariates have attracted growing attention. Standard multivariate regression models become inadequate when the response variables depend not only on observed covariates but also on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Jing Ouyang , Chengyu Cui , Yunxiao Chen , Kean Ming Tan , Gongjun Xu

Variational inference methods for latent variable statistical models have gained popularity because they are relatively fast, can handle large data sets, and have deterministic convergence guarantees. However, in practice it is unclear…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-22 Hachem Saddiki , Andrew C. Trapp , Patrick Flaherty

Suppose we observe samples of a subset of a collection of random variables. No additional information is provided about the number of latent variables, nor of the relationship between the latent and observed variables. Is it possible to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-05 Venkat Chandrasekaran , Pablo A. Parrilo , Alan S. Willsky

Deep learning algorithms have recently shown to be a successful tool in estimating parameters of statistical models for which simulation is easy, but likelihood computation is challenging. But the success of these approaches depends on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-20 Amanda Lenzi , Haavard Rue

Heteroscedastic regression models a Gaussian variable's mean and variance as a function of covariates. Parametric methods that employ neural networks for these parameter maps can capture complex relationships in the data. Yet, optimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Andrew Stirn , Hans-Hermann Wessels , Megan Schertzer , Laura Pereira , Neville E. Sanjana , David A. Knowles

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

We consider efficient estimation of flexible transformation models with interval-censored data. To reduce the dimension of semi-parametric models, the unknown monotone transformation function is approximated via monotone splines. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-30 Minggen Lu , Yan Liu , Chin-Shang Li , Jianguo Sun

We study the use of Temporal-Difference learning for estimating the structural parameters in dynamic discrete choice models. Our algorithms are based on the conditional choice probability approach but use functional approximations to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-23 Karun Adusumilli , Dita Eckardt
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