Related papers: Error analysis for probabilities of rare events wi…
The question of optimally approximating an arbitrary probability measure in the Wasserstein distance by a discrete one with uniform weights is considered. Estimates are obtained for the optimal approximation distance, with an explicit rate…
In this paper, we propose a sequential directional importance sampling (SDIS) method for rare event estimation. SDIS expresses a small failure probability in terms of a sequence of auxiliary failure probabilities, defined by magnifying the…
The estimation of rare event or failure probabilities in high dimensions is of interest in many areas of science and technology. We consider problems where the rare event is expressed in terms of a computationally costly numerical model.…
Predicting extreme events in chaotic systems, characterized by rare but intensely fluctuating properties, is of great importance due to their impact on the performance and reliability of a wide range of systems. Some examples include…
We investigate the inverse problem of identifying a conditional probability measure in a measure-dependent dynamical system. We provide existence and well-posedness results and outline a discretization scheme for approximating a measure.…
We present a novel probabilistic finite element method (FEM) for the solution and uncertainty quantification of elliptic partial differential equations based on random meshes, which we call random mesh FEM (RM-FEM). Our methodology allows…
We derive bounds on the sample complexity of empirical risk minimization (ERM) in the context of minimizing non-convex risks that admit the strict saddle property. Recent progress in non-convex optimization has yielded efficient algorithms…
The paper is split in two parts: in the first part, we construct the exact likelihood for a discretely observed rough differential equation, driven by a piecewise linear path. In the second part, we use this likelihood in order to construct…
This paper solves a new class of optimization problems under uncertainty, called Probable Event Constrained Optimization (PECO), which optimizes an objective function of decision variables and subjects to a set of Probable Event Constraints…
This paper studies the numerical approximation of parametric time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) by proper orthogonal decomposition reduced order models (POD-ROMs). Although many papers in the literature consider reduced…
The concept of Probability of Causation (PC) is critically important in legal contexts and can help in many other domains. While it has been around since 1986, current operationalizations can obtain only the minimum and maximum values of…
We discretize a risk-neutral optimal control problem governed by a linear elliptic partial differential equation with random inputs using a Monte Carlo sample-based approximation and a finite element discretization, yielding finite…
Let $\mathcal{F}$ be a class of measurable functions $f:S\mapsto [0,1]$ defined on a probability space $(S,\mathcal{A},P)$. Given a sample (X_1,...,X_n) of i.i.d. random variables taking values in S with common distribution P, let P_n…
Local stochastic volatility refers to a popular model class in applied mathematical finance that allows for "calibration-on-the-fly", typically via a particle method, derived from a formal McKean-Vlasov equation. Well-posedness of this…
The cross-entropy method (CE) developed by R. Rubinstein is an elegant practical principle for simulating rare events. The method approximates the probability of the rare event by means of a family of probabilistic models. The method has…
When data contains measurement errors, it is necessary to make assumptions relating the observed, erroneous data to the unobserved true phenomena of interest. These assumptions should be justifiable on substantive grounds, but are often…
Solving decision problems in complex, stochastic environments is often achieved by estimating the expected outcome of decisions via Monte Carlo sampling. However, sampling may overlook rare, but important events, which can severely impact…
In this paper we develop a methodology that we call split sampling methods to estimate high dimensional expectations and rare event probabilities. Split sampling uses an auxiliary variable MCMC simulation and expresses the expectation of…
For a convex class of functions $F$, a regularization functions $\Psi(\cdot)$ and given the random data $(X_i, Y_i)_{i=1}^N$, we study estimation properties of regularization procedures of the form \begin{equation*} \hat f \in {\rm…
A long noted difficulty when assessing the reliability (or calibration) of forecasting systems is that reliability, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A…