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Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Kevin Xia , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

We propose a method to classify the causal relationship between two discrete variables given only the joint distribution of the variables, acknowledging that the method is subject to an inherent baseline error. We assume that the causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-07 Krzysztof Chalupka , Frederick Eberhardt , Pietro Perona

Counterfactual explanations have shown promising results as a post-hoc framework to make image classifiers more explainable. In this paper, we propose DiME, a method allowing the generation of counterfactual images using the recent…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-30 Guillaume Jeanneret , Loïc Simon , Frédéric Jurie

Causal reasoning provides a language to ask important interventional and counterfactual questions beyond purely statistical association. In medical imaging, for example, we may want to study the causal effect of genetic, environmental, or…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-24 Rajat Rasal , Daniel C. Castro , Nick Pawlowski , Ben Glocker

Mediation analysis aims at disentangling the effects of a treatment on an outcome through alternative causal mechanisms and has become a popular practice in biomedical and social science applications. The causal framework based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-27 Allan Jerolon , Laura Baglietto , Etienne Birmele , Vittorio Perduca , Flora Alarcon

Causal Inference offers a fundamental approach for advancing empirical software engineering (ESE) beyond traditional statistical association, enabling researchers to rigorously identify and quantify causal relationships in software…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Daniel Rodriguez-Cardenas , Aya Garryyeva , David Nader Palacio , Antonio Mastropaolo , Denys Poshyvanyk

Methods to identify cause-effect relationships currently mostly assume the variables to be scalar random variables. However, in many fields the objects of interest are vectors or groups of scalar variables. We present a new constraint-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Causal learning tackles the computationally demanding task of estimating causal graphs. This paper introduces a new divide-and-conquer approach for causal graph learning, called DCILP. In the divide phase, the Markov blanket MB($X_i$) of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Shuyu Dong , Michèle Sebag , Kento Uemura , Akito Fujii , Shuang Chang , Yusuke Koyanagi , Koji Maruhashi

Counterfactual statements, which describe events that did not or cannot take place, are beneficial to numerous NLP applications. Hence, we consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) and seek to enhance the CFD models. Previous…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Thong Nguyen , Truc-My Nguyen

Causal parameters may not be point identified in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, information about non-identified parameters, in the form of bounds, may still be recovered from the observed data in some cases. We develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-02 Noam Finkelstein , Ilya Shpitser

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference, under Pearls' counterfactual framework, typically depends on having access to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Shaoan Xie , Biwei Huang , Bin Gu , Tongliang Liu , Kun Zhang

We present a categorical framework for relating causal models that represent the same system at different levels of abstraction. We define a causal abstraction as natural transformations between appropriate Markov functors, which concisely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-07 Markus Englberger , Devendra Singh Dhami

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Causal discovery, the task of automatically constructing a causal model from data, is of major significance across the sciences. Evaluating the performance of causal discovery algorithms should ideally involve comparing the inferred models…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-08-26 Maxime Peyrard , Robert West

Pearl's causal hierarchy has garnered sustained attention as a foundational lens for formulating and understanding causal questions, and has been extensively discussed within the framework of structural causal models. In this paper, we…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2026-01-29 Peng Wu , Linbo Wang

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability that one event was a cause of another in a given scenario. Using structural-semantical definitions of the probabilities of necessary or sufficient causation (or both), we show…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

To uncover the city's fundamental functioning mechanisms, it is important to acquire a deep understanding of complicated relationships among citizens, location, and mobility behaviors. Previous research studies have applied direct…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Tao Feng , Yunke Zhang , Xiaochen Fan , Huandong Wang , Yong Li

We propose a new method of discovering causal relationships in temporal data based on the notion of causal compression. To this end, we adopt the Pearlian graph setting and the directed information as an information theoretic tool for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-02 Aleksander Wieczorek , Volker Roth

We consider a a collection of categorical random variables. Of special interest is the causal effect on an outcome variable following an intervention on another variable. Conditionally on a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), we assume that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-29 Federico Castelletti , Guido Consonni , Marco Luigi Della Vedova

Prompt learning has garnered attention for its efficiency over traditional model training and fine-tuning. However, existing methods, constrained by inadequate theoretical foundations, encounter difficulties in achieving causally invariant…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Xinshu Li , Ruoyu Wang , Erdun Gao , Mingming Gong , Lina Yao