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Producing probabilistic forecasts for large collections of similar and/or dependent time series is a practically relevant and challenging task. Classical time series models fail to capture complex patterns in the data, and multivariate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-30 Yuyang Wang , Alex Smola , Danielle C. Maddix , Jan Gasthaus , Dean Foster , Tim Januschowski

Hierarchical factor models, which include the bifactor model as a special case, are useful in social and behavioural sciences for measuring hierarchically structured constructs. Specifying a hierarchical factor model involves imposing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-06 Jiawei Qiao , Yunxiao Chen , Zhiliang Ying

We propose a dynamic multiplicative factor model for process data, which arise from complex problem-solving items, an emerging testing mode in large-scale educational assessment. The proposed model can be viewed as an extension of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-26 Fangyi Chen , Hok Kan Ling , Zhiliang Ying

In many domains such as healthcare or finance, data often come in different assays or measurement modalities, with features in each assay having a common theme. Simply concatenating these assays together and performing prediction can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-17 J. Kenneth Tay , Robert Tibshirani

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-25 Steven Winter , Trevor Campbell , Lizhen Lin , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

In recent years, manifold methods have moved into focus as tools for dimension reduction. Assuming that the high-dimensional data actually lie on or close to a low-dimensional nonlinear manifold, these methods have shown convincing results…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-23 Moritz Herrmann , Fabian Scheipl

We introduce a novel Bayesian hybrid matrix factorisation model (HMF) for data integration, based on combining multiple matrix factorisation methods, that can be used for in- and out-of-matrix prediction of missing values. The model is very…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-04-18 Thomas Brouwer , Pietro Lió

In financial trading, factor models are widely used to price assets and capture excess returns from mispricing. Recently, we have witnessed the rise of variational autoencoder-based latent factor models, which learn latent factors…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-15 Yilei Zhao , Wentao Zhang , Tingran Yang , Yong Jiang , Fei Huang , Wei Yang Bryan Lim

Scattering structure factors provide essential insight into material properties and are routinely obtained in experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical analyses. Different approaches favor different geometries of the material. In…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2018-05-15 Yongtian Luo , Lutz Maibaum

Data augmentation in feature space is effective to increase data diversity. Previous methods assume that different classes have the same covariance in their feature distributions. Thus, feature transform between different classes is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-08-05 Yuke Zhu , Yan Bai , Yichen Wei

Spherically embedded time series are time series with values naturally residing on or can be equivalently mapped to the sphere. Despite their ubiquity in diverse scientific fields, these data frequently exhibit complex non-stationarity…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Jiazhen Xu , Han Lin Shang

Spatial statistical models are commonly used in geographical scenarios to ensure spatial variation is captured effectively. However, spatial models and cluster algorithms can be complicated and expensive. This paper pursues three main…

The location, timing, and abundance of gene expression (both mRNA and proteins) within a tissue define the molecular mechanisms of cell functions. Recent technology breakthroughs in spatial molecular profiling, including imaging-based…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-10 Qiwei Li , Minzhe Zhang , Yang Xie , Guanghua Xiao

Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-15 M-Z. Spyropoulou , J. Hopker , J. E. Griffin

Complex dynamic systems can be investigated by fitting mechanistic stochastic dynamic models to time series data. In this context, commonly used Monte Carlo inference procedures for model selection and parameter estimation quickly become…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-24 Jesse Wheeler , Aaron J. Abkemeier , Edward L. Ionides

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

We present a flexible Bayesian semiparametric mixed model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of potentially high-dimensional categorical covariates. Building on a novel hidden Markov tensor decomposition technique, our proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-05 Giorgio Paulon , Peter Müller , Abhra Sarkar

We introduce a factor analysis model that summarizes the dependencies between observed variable groups, instead of dependencies between individual variables as standard factor analysis does. A group may correspond to one view of the same…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-19 Seppo Virtanen , Arto Klami , Suleiman A. Khan , Samuel Kaski

Normalizing flows have shown great success as general-purpose density estimators. However, many real world applications require the use of domain-specific knowledge, which normalizing flows cannot readily incorporate. We propose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-17 Gianluigi Silvestri , Emily Fertig , Dave Moore , Luca Ambrogioni

Modeling correlation (and covariance) matrices can be challenging due to the positive-definiteness constraint and potential high-dimensionality. Our approach is to decompose the covariance matrix into the correlation and variance matrices…