Related papers: The shapes of an epidemic: using Functional Data A…

The COVID-19 epidemic that emerged in Wuhan China at the end of 2019 hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules (Phase 1). There is now a hot ongoing debate in Italy and abroad on what the…

The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today. Results show that this method works well for China:…

The importance of spatial networks in the spread of an epidemic is an essential aspect in modeling the dynamics of an infectious disease. Additionally, any realistic data-driven model must take into account the large uncertainty in the…

Intercity travel is one of the most important parameters for combating a pandemic. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in different computational studies involving intercity connections. In this study, the effects of intercity…

Comparing how different populations have suffered under COVID-19 is a core part of ongoing investigations into how public policy and social inequalities influence the number of and severity of COVID-19 cases. But COVID-19 incidence can vary…

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused ~ 2 million fatalities. Significant progress has been made in advancing our understanding of the disease process, one of the unanswered questions, however, is the anomaly in the case/mortality ratio with…

By fitting a compartment ODE model for Covid-19 propagation to cumulative case and death data for US states and European countries, we find that the case mortality rate seems to have decreased by at least 80% in most of the US and at least…

Italy, particularly the Lombardy region, was among the first countries outside of Asia to report cases of COVID-19. The emergency medical service called Regional Emergency Agency (AREU) coordinates the intra- and inter-regional non-hospital…

Italy reports some of the lowest levels of mortality in the developed world. Recent evidence, however, suggests that even in low mortality countries improvements may be slowing and regional inequalities widening. This study contributes new…

Information of 1.6 million patients identified as SARS-CoV-2 positive in Mexico is used to understand the relationship between comorbidities, symptoms, hospitalizations and deaths due to the COVID-19 disease. Using the presence or absence…

The COVID-19 crisis is profoundly influencing the global economic framework due to restrictive measures adopted by governments worldwide. Finding real-time data to correctly quantify this impact is very significant but not as…

The data analysis on deaths in the Lombardy Region and of both the provinces of Bergamo and Brescia shows a twofold aspect on the trend of the epidemic: - all the data show a bias linked to the event of March 10th (day for which the…

Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) is a severe ongoing novel pandemic that is spreading quickly across the world. Italy, that is widely considered one of the main epicenters of the pandemic, has registered the highest COVID-2019 death rates…

We present a Monte Carlo simulation model of an epidemic spread inspired on physics variables such as temperature, cross section and interaction range, which considers the Plank distribution of photons in the black body radiation to…

Background: Providing appropriate care for people suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 virus is a significant global challenge. Many individuals who become infected have pre-existing conditions that may…

To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, sparing almost no community. As the disease will likely remain a threat for years to come, an understanding of the precise influences of human demographics…

Introduction: For COVID-19 patients accurate prediction of disease severity and mortality risk would greatly improve care delivery and resource allocation. There are many patient-related factors, such as pre-existing comorbidities that…