Related papers: The shapes of an epidemic: using Functional Data A…

The COVID-19 pandemic considerably affects public health systems around the world. The lack of knowledge about the virus, the extension of this phenomenon, and the speed of the evolution of the infection are all factors that highlight the…

While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical…

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the Italian risk model used during the COVID-19 pandemic to guide regional mobility restrictions through a colour-coded classification system. The research focuses on evaluating the…

Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…

Mobile phone data have been widely used to model the spread of COVID-19, however, quantifying and comparing their predictive value across different settings is challenging. Their quality is affected by various factors and their relationship…

In this article we use the methods of functional data analysis to analyze the number of positive tests, deaths, convalescents, hospitalized and intensive care people during second and third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. For this…

Mobility data at EU scale can help understand the dynamics of the pandemic and possibly limit the impact of future waves. Still, since a reliable and consistent method to measure the evolution of contagion at international level is missing,…

As Europe is facing the second wave of the CoViD-19 pandemic, each country should carefully review how it dealt with the first wave of outbreak. Lessons from the first experience should be useful to avoid indiscriminate closures and, above…

This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave…

We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that an early lockdown shifts the epidemic in time, while that beyond a critical value of the lockdown…

Understanding how widely COVID-19 has spread is critical for examining the pandemic's progression. Despite efforts to carefully monitor the pandemic, the number of confirmed cases may underestimate the total number of infections. We…

In this paper we develop a predictive model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e. EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official…

We present an extension of the Li and Lee model to quantify mortality in five European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first two factors are used to model the pre-COVID mortality, with the first layer modelling the common trend…

Analytical descriptions of patterns concerning spread and fatality during an epidemic, covering natural as well as restriction periods, are important for reducing damage. We employ a scaling model to investigate this aspect in the real data…

I use a very simple deterministic model for the spread of Covid-19 in a large population. Using this to compare the relative decay of the number of deaths per day between different regions in Italy, Spain and England, each applying in…

In a recent report we have collected some data about the COVID-19 epidemics in Northern Italy; in this follow-up we analyze how these changed after the mild restrictive measures taken by the Government two weeks ago and the large campaign…

The demographic factors have a substantial impact on the overall casualties caused by the COVID-19. In this study, the spatial association between the key demographic variables and COVID-19 cases and deaths were analyzed using the spatial…

Determinants of COVID-19 clinical severity are commonly assessed by transverse or longitudinal studies of the fatality counts. However, the fatality counts depend both on disease clinical severity and transmissibility, as more infected also…

While COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in global mortality rates, the impact of the pandemic on mortality from other causes remains uncertain. To gain insight into the broader effects of COVID-19 on various causes of death,…

Using anonymized mobility data from Facebook users and publicly available information on the Italian population, we model the circulation of people in Italy before and during the early phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (COVID-19). We perform…