Related papers: The Augmented Jump Chain -- a sparse representatio…

We are interested in the asymptotic behavior of Markov chains on the set of positive integers for which, loosely speaking, large jumps are rare and occur at a rate that behaves like a negative power of the current state, and such that small…

Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce…

In order to approximate a continuous time stochastic process by discrete time Markov chains one has several options to embed the Markov chains into continuous time processes. On the one hand there is the Markov embedding, which uses…

We construct a non-decreasing pure jump Markov process, whose jump measure heavily depends on the values taken by the process. We determine the singularity spectrum of this process, which turns out to be random and to depend locally on the…

Smoothed model checking based on Gaussian process classification provides a powerful approach for statistical model checking of parametric continuous time Markov chain models. The method constructs a model for the functional dependence of…

In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is…

The consistency across scales of a recently developed mathematical thermodynamic structure, between a continuous stochastic nonlinear dynamical system (diffusion process with Langevin or Fokker-Planck equations) and its emergent discrete,…

We consider versions of the Metropolis algorithm which avoid the inefficiency of rejections. We first illustrate that a natural Uniform Selection Algorithm might not converge to the correct distribution. We then analyse the use of Markov…

Many complex systems exhibit interactions that depend not only on pairwise connections, but also group structures and memory effects. To capture such effects, we develop a unified tensor framework for modeling higher-order Markov chains…

Approximate Bayesian inference methods that scale to very large datasets are crucial in leveraging probabilistic models for real-world time series. Sparse Markovian Gaussian processes combine the use of inducing variables with efficient…

Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based…

We study safe, data-driven control of (Markov) jump linear systems with unknown transition probabilities, where both the discrete mode and the continuous state are to be inferred from output measurements. To this end, we develop a receding…

Motivated by reduction of computational complexity, this work develops sign-error adaptive filtering algorithms for estimating time-varying system parameters. Different from the previous work on sign-error algorithms, the parameters are…

This paper deals with the finite horizon optimal control problem for discrete-time Markov jump linear system with input delay. The correlation among the jumping parameters and the input delay are considered simultaneously, which forms the…

"Quantum trajectories" are solutions of stochastic differential equations also called Belavkin or Stochastic Schr\"odinger Equations. They describe random phenomena in quantum measurement theory. Two types of such equations are usually…

Non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo methods often outperform their reversible counterparts in terms of asymptotic variance of ergodic averages and mixing properties. Lifting the state-space (Chen et al., 1999; Diaconis et al., 2000) is…

In this paper, we are interested in the exact simulation of a class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMP). We show how to perform efficient thinning algorithms depending on the jump rate bound. For different types of jump rate…

We investigate the Poisson regression method for Markov and semi-Markov jump processes from a nonparametric angle, allowing the lengths of the time and duration intervals in the partition to vary with the number of observations. Imposing no…

We consider a simple but important class of metastable discrete time Markov chains, which we call perturbed Markov chains. Basically, we assume that the transition matrices depend on a parameter $\varepsilon$, and converge as $\varepsilon$.…

We consider the problem of performing inference with imprecise continuous-time hidden Markov chains, that is, imprecise continuous-time Markov chains that are augmented with random output variables whose distribution depends on the hidden…