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Recent advancements in machine learning have emphasized the need for transparency in model predictions, particularly as interpretability diminishes when using increasingly complex architectures. In this paper, we propose leveraging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-18 Chenrui Zhu , Louenas Bounia , Vu Linh Nguyen , Sébastien Destercke , Arthur Hoarau

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) designed in simulators behave differently in the real-world. Once they are deployed in the real-world, we would hence like to predict system failures during runtime. We propose robust predictive runtime…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-12 Yiqi Zhao , Bardh Hoxha , Georgios Fainekos , Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh , Lars Lindemann

We investigate a data-driven approach to constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization problems, where the uncertain problem parameters are modeled as random variables whose joint probability distribution is not known. Relying only…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Polina Alexeenko , Eilyan Bitar

What does it mean to say that, for example, the probability for rain tomorrow is between 20% and 30%? The theory for the evaluation of precise probabilistic forecasts is well-developed and is grounded in the key concepts of proper scoring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Christian Fröhlich , Robert C. Williamson

Robust optimization (RO) is a common approach to tractably obtain safeguarding solutions for optimization problems with uncertain constraints. In this paper, we study a statistical framework to integrate data into RO, based on learning a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-03 L. Jeff Hong , Zhiyuan Huang , Henry Lam

In this paper, by proposing two new kinds of distributional uncertainty sets, we explore robustness of distortion risk measures against distributional uncertainty. To be precise, we first consider a distributional uncertainty set which is…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-15 Xiangyu Han , Yijun Hu , Ran Wang , Linxiao Wei

Many decision problems in science, engineering and economics are affected by uncertain parameters whose distribution is only indirectly observable through samples. The goal of data-driven decision-making is to learn a decision from finitely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Daniel Kuhn , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Viet Anh Nguyen , Soroosh Shafieezadeh-Abadeh

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Olivier C. Pasche , Henry Lam , Sebastian Engelke

With the rise of deep neural networks, the challenge of explaining the predictions of these networks has become increasingly recognized. While many methods for explaining the decisions of deep neural networks exist, there is currently no…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-13 Ian E. Nielsen , Dimah Dera , Ghulam Rasool , Nidhal Bouaynaya , Ravi P. Ramachandran

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) are essential for interpreting black-box models, yet they often become invalid when models are slightly changed. Existing methods for generating robust CFEs are often limited to specific types of models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Marcin Kostrzewa , Maciej Zięba , Jerzy Stefanowski

Several techniques for domain adaptation have been proposed to account for differences in the distribution of the data used for training and testing. The majority of this work focuses on a binary domain label. Similar problems occur in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-18 Gilles Louppe , Michael Kagan , Kyle Cranmer

Prediction of future observations is an important and challenging problem. The two mainstream approaches for quantifying prediction uncertainty use prediction regions and predictive distributions, respectively, with the latter believed to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-13 Leonardo Cella , Ryan Martin

In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Matteo Fontana , Gianluca Zeni , Simone Vantini

Conformal prediction has emerged as a rigorous means of providing deep learning models with reliable uncertainty estimates and safety guarantees. Yet, its performance is known to degrade under distribution shift and long-tailed class…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Kevin Kasa , Graham W. Taylor

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Hao Cheng , Qingsong Wen , Yang Liu , Liang Sun

Distributionally robust policy learning aims to find a policy that performs well under the worst-case distributional shift, and yet most existing methods for robust policy learning consider the worst-case joint distribution of the covariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Jingyuan Wang , Zhimei Ren , Ruohan Zhan , Zhengyuan Zhou

Interpretability methods are valuable only if their explanations faithfully describe the explained model. In this work, we consider neural networks whose predictions are invariant under a specific symmetry group. This includes popular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-06 Jonathan Crabbé , Mihaela van der Schaar

We observe a $n$-sample, the distribution of which is assumed to belong, or at least to be close enough, to a given mixture model. We propose an estimator of this distribution that belongs to our model and possesses some robustness…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Alexandre Lecestre

We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks, it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-02 Beate Sick , Torsten Hothorn , Oliver Dürr

Reinforcement learning has emerged as one of the prominent topics attracting attention in modern statistical learning, with policy evaluation being a key component. Unlike the traditional machine learning literature on this topic, our work…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-04 Weidong Liu , Jiyuan Tu , Xi Chen , Yichen Zhang
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