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Ordinary and stochastic differential equations (ODEs and SDEs) are widely used to model continuous-time processes across various scientific fields. While ODEs offer interpretability and simplicity, SDEs incorporate randomness, providing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Qingchuan Sun , Susanne Ditlevsen

Local polynomial regression of order at least one often performs poorly in regions of sparse data. Local constant regression is exceptional in this regard, though it is the least accurate method in general, especially at the boundaries of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Chunlei Ge , W. John Braun

We design and analyse a new numerical method to solve ODE system based on the structural method. We compute approximations of solutions together with its derivatives up to order $K$ by solving an entire block corresponding to $R$ time…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-05 S. Clain , M. T. Malheiro , G. J. Machado , R. Costa

We study the problem of estimating the coefficients in linear ordinary differential equations (ODE's) with a diverging number of variables when the solutions are observed with noise. The solution trajectories are first smoothed with local…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-04-29 Heng Lian

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are commonly used to model dynamic behavior of a system. Because many parameters are unknown and have to be estimated from the observed data, there is growing interest in statistics to develop…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-13 Xin Qi , Hongyu Zhao

In many fields of application, dynamic processes that evolve through time are well described by systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The analytical solution of the ODEs is often not available and different methods have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-19 Saverio Ranciati , Cinzia Viroli , Ernst Wit

Time series with non-uniform intervals occur in many applications, and are difficult to model using standard recurrent neural networks (RNNs). We generalize RNNs to have continuous-time hidden dynamics defined by ordinary differential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-10 Yulia Rubanova , Ricky T. Q. Chen , David Duvenaud

Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are widely used to describe systems in many areas of science. To ensure these models provide accurate and interpretable representations of real-world dynamics, it is often necessary to infer…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Selva Salimi , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

Neural ordinary differential equations describe how values change in time. This is the reason why they gained importance in modeling sequential data, especially when the observations are made at irregular intervals. In this paper we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Marin Biloš , Johanna Sommer , Syama Sundar Rangapuram , Tim Januschowski , Stephan Günnemann

Inferring unbiased treatment effects has received widespread attention in the machine learning community. In recent years, our community has proposed numerous solutions in standard settings, high-dimensional treatment settings, and even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Samuel Holt , Jeroen Berrevoets , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-16 Juho Timonen , Nikolas Siccha , Ben Bales , Harri Lähdesmäki , Aki Vehtari

Operator learning has emerged as a promising paradigm for developing efficient surrogate models to solve partial differential equations (PDEs). However, existing approaches often overlook the domain knowledge inherent in the underlying PDEs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-20 Ziqian Li , Kang Liu , Yongcun Song , Hangrui Yue , Enrique Zuazua

In recent years, kernel density estimation has been exploited by computer scientists to model machine learning problems. The kernel density estimation based approaches are of interest due to the low time complexity of either O(n) or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2007-10-16 Yen-Jen Oyang , Darby Tien-Hao Chang , Yu-Yen Ou , Hao-Geng Hung , Chih-Peng Wu , Chien-Yu Chen

Probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have emerged as an efficient framework for uncertainty quantification and inference on dynamical systems. In this work, we explain the mathematical assumptions and detailed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-25 Nicholas Krämer , Nathanael Bosch , Jonathan Schmidt , Philipp Hennig

Deep Learning has emerged as one of the most significant innovations in machine learning. However, a notable limitation of this field lies in the ``black box" decision-making processes, which have led to skepticism within groups like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Shi Li

We introduce a novel framework for uncertainty quantification of solution operators associated with stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Although SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Phuoc-Toan Huynh , Richard Archibald , Feng Bao

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to characterize the dynamics of complex systems in real applications. In this article, we propose a novel joint estimation approach for generalized sparse additive ODEs where…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-19 Nan Zhang , Muye Nanshan , Jiguo Cao

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to model biological, (bio-)chemical and technical processes. The parameters of these ODEs are often estimated from experimental data using ODE-constrained optimisation. This article…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-11-06 Anna Fiedler , Fabian J. Theis , Jan Hasenauer

Effectively modeling phenomena present in highly nonlinear dynamical systems whilst also accurately quantifying uncertainty is a challenging task, which often requires problem-specific techniques. We present a novel, domain-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-26 Thomas M. McDonald , Mauricio A. Álvarez

In this paper we develop a kernel density estimation (KDE) approach to modeling and forecasting recurrent trajectories on a compact manifold. For the purposes of this paper, a trajectory is a sequence of coordinates in a phase space defined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-06 Trevor K. Karn , Steven Petrone , Christopher Griffin
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