Related papers: Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
The rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) present unique challenges for policymakers that seek to govern the technology. In this context, the Delphi method has become an established way to identify consensus and disagreement on…
Participants in recent discussions of AI-related issues ranging from intelligence explosion to technological unemployment have made diverse claims about the nature, pace, and drivers of progress in AI. However, these theories are rarely…
Predicting the future trajectory of complex and rapidly evolving systems remains a significant challenge, particularly in domains where data is scarce or unreliable. This study introduces a novel approach to qualitative forecasting by…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly embedded in scientific discovery, yet whether it can anticipate scientific progress remains unclear. To study this question, we introduce a temporally grounded evaluation framework for…
A tool that could suggest new personalized research directions and ideas by taking insights from the scientific literature could significantly accelerate the progress of science. A field that might benefit from such an approach is…
Scientific discovery is a complex cognitive process that has driven human knowledge and technological progress for centuries. While artificial intelligence (AI) has made significant advances in automating aspects of scientific reasoning,…
AI alignment research is the field of study dedicated to ensuring that artificial intelligence (AI) benefits humans. As machine intelligence gets more advanced, this research is becoming increasingly important. Researchers in the field…
Artificial intelligence (AI) raises expectations of substantial increases in rates of technological and scientific progress, but such anticipations are often not connected to detailed ground-level studies of AI use in innovation processes.…
Artificial intelligence (AI) models trained on published scientific findings have been used to invent valuable materials and targeted therapies, but they typically ignore the human scientists who continually alter the landscape of…
Without the ability to estimate and benchmark AI capability advancements, organizations are left to respond to each change reactively, impeding their ability to build viable mid and long-term strategies. This paper explores the recent…
Current Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods, most based on deep learning, have facilitated progress in several fields, including computer vision and natural language understanding. The progress of these AI methods is measured using…
Artificial intelligence (AI) has revolutionized decision-making processes and systems throughout society and, in particular, has emerged as a significant technology in high-impact scenarios of national interest. Yet, despite AI's impressive…
Research is a fundamental process driving the advancement of human civilization, yet it demands substantial time and effort from researchers. In recent years, the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies has inspired…
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are shaping modern life, from transportation, health care, science, finance, to national defense. Forecasts of AI development could help improve policy- and decision-making. We report the results…
Expert consensus plays a critical role in domains where evidence is complex, conflicting, or insufficient for direct prescription. Traditional methods, such as Delphi studies, consensus conferences, and systematic guideline synthesis, offer…
AI models that predict the future behavior of a system (a.k.a. predictive AI models) are central to intelligent decision-making. However, decision-making using predictive AI models often results in suboptimal performance. This is primarily…
The development of privacy-enhancing technologies has made immense progress in reducing trade-offs between privacy and performance in data exchange and analysis. Similar tools for structured transparency could be useful for AI governance by…
In this report, we review the current state of methodologies to forecast the arrival of artificial general intelligence, assess their reliability, and analyze the implications for strategy and policy. We synthesize diverse forecasting…
Last decade has seen major improvements in the performance of artificial intelligence which has driven wide-spread applications. Unforeseen effects of such mass-adoption has put the notion of AI safety into the public eye. AI safety is a…
Powerful new frontier AI technologies are bringing many benefits to society but at the same time bring new risks. AI developers and regulators are therefore seeking ways to assure the safety of such systems, and one promising method under…