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Estimation of social influence in networks can be substantially biased in observational studies due to homophily and network correlation in exposure to exogenous events. Randomized experiments, in which the researcher intervenes in the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-09-28 Sean J. Taylor , Dean Eckles

Multi-model prediction efforts in infectious disease modeling and climate modeling involve multiple teams independently producing projections under various scenarios. Often these scenarios are produced by the presence and absence of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-11 Yuanhao Lu , Ajitesh Srivastava

Point estimation of class prevalences in the presence of data set shift has been a popular research topic for more than two decades. Less attention has been paid to the construction of confidence and prediction intervals for estimates of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-23 Dirk Tasche

People often interact repeatedly: with relatives, through file sharing, in politics, etc. Many such interactions are reciprocal: reacting to the actions of the other. In order to facilitate decisions regarding reciprocal interactions, we…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-03-01 Gleb Polevoy , Mathijs de Weerdt , Catholijn Jonker

Time-to-event analyses are often plagued by both -- possibly unmeasured -- confounding and competing risks. To deal with the former, the use of instrumental variables for effect estimation is rapidly gaining ground. We show how to make use…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-04 Torben Martinussen , Stijn Vansteelandt

Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-06-28 Rossana Mastrandrea , Alain Barrat

Analysts seldom include interaction terms in meta-regression model, what can introduce bias if an interaction is present. We illustrate this in the current paper by re-analyzing an example from research on acute heart failure, where…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-10 Eric S. Knop , Markus Pauly , Tim Friede , Thilo Welz

In this paper, we propose a novel association measure for longitudinal studies based on the traditional definition of relative risk. In a Markovian fashion, such a proposal takes into account the information content regarding the previous…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-27 Lina Buitrago , Juan Sosa , Oscar Melo

We give an approach for characterizing interference by lower bounding the number of units whose outcome depends on selected groups of treated individuals, such as depending on the treatment of others, or others who are at least a certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 David Choi

A prediction interval covers a future observation from a random process in repeated sampling, and is typically constructed by identifying a pivotal quantity that is also an ancillary statistic. Analogously, a tolerance interval covers a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Geoffrey S Johnson

This paper presents a randomization-based framework for estimating causal effects under interference between units, motivated by challenges that arise in analyzing experiments on social networks. The framework integrates three components:…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-21 Peter M. Aronow , Cyrus Samii

Diseases and other contagion phenomena in nature and society can interact asymmetrically, such that one can benefit from the other, which in turn impairs the first, in analogy with predator-prey systems. Here, we consider two models for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-02-17 Paulo Cesar Ventura , Yamir Moreno , Francisco A. Rodrigues

To estimate direct and indirect effects of an exposure on an outcome from observed data strong assumptions about unconfoundedness are required. Since these assumptions cannot be tested using the observed data, a mediation analysis should…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-29 Anita Lindmark , Xavier de Luna , Marie Eriksson

Airborne infection risk analysis is usually performed for enclosed spaces where susceptible individuals are exposed to infectious airborne respiratory droplets by inhalation. It is usually based on exponential, dose-response models of which…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-08-01 Yannis Drossinos , Nikolaos I. Stilianakis

Including pairwise interactions between the predictors of a regression model can produce better predicting models. However, to fit such interaction models on typical data sets in biology and other fields can often require solving enormous…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 Guo Yu , Jacob Bien , Ryan Tibshirani

For complex diseases, the interactions between genetic and environmental risk factors can have important implications beyond the main effects. Many of the existing interaction analyses conduct marginal analysis and cannot accommodate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-31 Yangguang Zang , Yinjun Zhao , Qingzhao Zhang , Hao Chai , Sanguo Zhang , Shuangge Ma

Many important questions in infectious disease epidemiology involve the effects of covariates (e.g., age or vaccination status) on infectiousness and susceptibility, which can be measured in studies of transmission in households or other…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-27 Yushuf Sharker , Zaynab Diallo , Wasiur R. KhudaBukhsh , Eben Kenah

We consider a non-proportional hazards model where the regression coefficient is not constant but piecewise constant. Following Andersen and Gill (1982), we know that a knowledge of the changepoint leads to a relatively straightforward…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-11 Roxane Duroux , John O'Quigley

We consider two problems that are attracting increasing attention in clinical dose finding studies. First, we assess the similarity of two non-linear regression models for two non-overlapping subgroups of patients over a restricted…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-12 Frank Bretz , Kathrin Möllenhoff , Holger Dette , Wei Liu , Matthias Trampisch

We address a classical problem in statistics: adding two-way interaction terms to a regression model. As the covariate dimension increases quadratically, we develop an estimator that adapts well to this increase, while providing accurate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-26 Mark A. van de Wiel , Matteo Amestoy , Jeroen Hoogland