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Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Daniel Andrew Coulson , David S. Matteson , Martin T. Wells

We consider the problem of sampling from a posterior distribution arising in Bayesian inverse problems in science, engineering, and imaging. Our method belongs to the family of independence Metropolis-Hastings (IMH) sampling algorithms,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Youguang Chen , George Biros

Approximate Bayesian computation allows for statistical analysis in models with intractable likelihoods. In this paper we consider the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution obtained by this method. We give general results on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-09 David T. Frazier , Gael M. Martin , Christian P. Robert , Judith Rousseau

We consider the well-posedness of Bayesian inverse problems when the prior measure has exponential tails. In particular, we consider the class of convex (log-concave) probability measures which include the Gaussian and Besov measures as…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-27 Bamdad Hosseini , Nilima Nigam

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-08-28 Diego Casadei

This paper develops a methodology for robust Bayesian inference through the use of disparities. Metrics such as Hellinger distance and negative exponential disparity have a long history in robust estimation in frequentist inference. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-28 Giles Hooker , Anand Vidyashankar

In this paper we study the convergence of an iterative algorithm for finding zeros with constraints for not necessarily monotone set-valued operators in a reflexive Banach space. This algorithm, which we call the proximal-projection method…

Exactly Solvable and Integrable Systems · Physics 2007-11-16 Dan Butnariu , Gabor Kassay

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

Divergence is not only an important mathematical concept in information theory, but also applied to machine learning problems such as low-dimensional embedding, manifold learning, clustering, classification, and anomaly detection. We…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-22 Kun Yang , Hao Su , Wing Hung Wong

A Bayesian pseudocoreset is a compact synthetic dataset summarizing essential information of a large-scale dataset and thus can be used as a proxy dataset for scalable Bayesian inference. Typically, a Bayesian pseudocoreset is constructed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Balhae Kim , Hyungi Lee , Juho Lee

Nonparametric regression problems with qualitative constraints such as monotonicity or convexity are ubiquitous in applications. For example, in predicting the yield of a factory in terms of the number of labor hours, the monotonicity of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Soham Mallick , Siddhaarth Sarkar , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-02 Merlin Keller , Kaniav Kamary

Non-linear latent variable models have become increasingly popular in a variety of applications. However, there has been little study on theoretical properties of these models. In this article, we study rates of posterior contraction in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-27 Shuang Zhou , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya , David Dunson

This article describes a multivariate polynomial regression method where the uncertainty of the input parameters are approximated with Gaussian distributions, derived from the central limit theorem for large weighted sums, directly from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-10-04 Peter Kovesarki , Ian C. Brock

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-13 Luis G. Leon-Novelo , Terrance D. Savitsky

In this paper, we study the learning rate of generalized Bayes estimators in a general setting where the hypothesis class can be uncountable and have an irregular shape, the loss function can have heavy tails, and the optimal hypothesis may…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-22 Lam Si Tung Ho , Binh T. Nguyen , Vu Dinh , Duy Nguyen

We study the sequential testing problem of two alternative hypotheses regarding an unknown parameter in an exponential family when observations are costly. In a Bayesian setting, the problem can be embedded in a Markovian framework. Using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Erik Ekström , Yuqiong Wang

We study posterior contraction rates for mixing measures in homoscedastic location-scale mixture models with infinitely many components. While posterior convergence at the level of densities is well understood, ensuring convergence of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Nicola Bariletto , Dung Le , Alessandro Rinaldo , Nhat Ho

A common problem in disciplines of applied Statistics research such as Astrostatistics is of estimating the posterior distribution of relevant parameters. Typically, the likelihoods for such models are computed via expensive experiments…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-07 Kirthevasan Kandasamy , Jeff Schneider , Barnabás Póczos

We consider a family of infinite dimensional product measures with tails between Gaussian and exponential, which we call $p$-exponential measures. We study their measure-theoretic properties and in particular their concentration. Our…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-09 Sergios Agapiou , Masoumeh Dashti , Tapio Helin