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A comprehensive artificial intelligence system needs to not only perceive the environment with different `senses' (e.g., seeing and hearing) but also infer the world's conditional (or even causal) relations and corresponding uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-07 Hao Wang , Dit-Yan Yeung

It is well understood that Bayesian decision theory and average case analysis are essentially identical. However, if one is interested in performing uncertainty quantification for a numerical task, it can be argued that standard approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-16 Chris. J. Oates , Jon Cockayne , Dennis Prangle , T. J. Sullivan , Mark Girolami

Approving and assessing new drugs is complex because multiple criteria must be considered simultaneously. A common approach is benefit-risk analysis, often conducted within a Bayesian framework to account for uncertainty and combine data…

In domains where transparency and trustworthiness are crucial, such as healthcare, rule-based systems are widely used and often preferred over black-box models for decision support systems due to their inherent interpretability. However, as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Christel Sirocchi , Damiano Verda

Some statistical models are specified via a data generating process for which the likelihood function cannot be computed in closed form. Standard likelihood-based inference is then not feasible but the model parameters can be inferred by…

Computation · Statistics 2015-02-20 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander , Ritabrata Dutta , Samuel Kaski

Bayesian field theory denotes a nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning functions from observational data. Based on the principles of Bayesian statistics, a particular Bayesian field theory is defined by combining two models: a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 J. C. Lemm

In this Note we introduce a new methodology for Bayesian inference through the use of $\phi$-divergences and the duality technique. The asymptotic laws of the estimates are established.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-12-30 Mohamed Cherfi

This paper tackles the challenge of detecting unreliable behavior in regression algorithms, which may arise from intrinsic variability (e.g., aleatoric uncertainty) or modeling errors (e.g., model uncertainty). First, we formally introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Andres Altieri , Marco Romanelli , Georg Pichler , Florence Alberge , Pablo Piantanida

Learning to infer Bayesian posterior from a few-shot dataset is an important step towards robust meta-learning due to the model uncertainty inherent in the problem. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian model-agnostic meta-learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-20 Taesup Kim , Jaesik Yoon , Ousmane Dia , Sungwoong Kim , Yoshua Bengio , Sungjin Ahn

The emergent field of probabilistic numerics has thus far lacked clear statistical principals. This paper establishes Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods as those which can be cast as solutions to certain inverse problems within the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-15 Jon Cockayne , Chris Oates , Tim Sullivan , Mark Girolami

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

Nonlinear mixed effects models have become a standard platform for analysis when data is in the form of continuous and repeated measurements of subjects from a population of interest, while temporal profiles of subjects commonly follow a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-04 Se Yoon Lee

Recent advances in deep learning have led to a paradigm shift in the field of reversible steganography. A fundamental pillar of reversible steganography is predictive modelling which can be realised via deep neural networks. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Ching-Chun Chang

This paper introduces an explanation framework designed to enhance the quality of rules in knowledge-based reasoning systems based on dataset-driven insights. The traditional method for rule induction from data typically requires…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Oshani Seneviratne , Brendan Capuzzo , William Van Woensel

The Bayesian Learning Rule provides a framework for generic algorithm design but can be difficult to use for three reasons. First, it requires a specific parameterization of exponential family. Second, it uses gradients which can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-09 Eren Mehmet Kıral , Thomas Möllenhoff , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

Big Data often presents as massive non-probability samples. Not only is the selection mechanism often unknown, but larger data volume amplifies the relative contribution of selection bias to total error. Existing bias adjustment approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Carol A. C. Flannagan , Brady T. West , Michael R. Elliott

We extend the formal framework of classifier models used in the legal domain. While the existing classifier framework characterises cases solely through the facts involved, legal reasoning fundamentally relies on both facts and rules,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-02 Cecilia Di Florio , Huimin Dong , Antonino Rotolo

Unconstrained optimization problems are typically solved using iterative methods, which often depend on line search techniques to determine optimal step lengths in each iteration. This paper introduces a novel line search approach.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-20 Sören Laue , Tomislav Prusina

We consider penalized regression models under a unified framework where the particular method is determined by the form of the penalty term. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that incorporates both sparse and dense settings and show how…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-25 Ding Xiang , Galin L. Jones

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees [BART, Chipman et al., 2010] have gained significant popularity due to their remarkable predictive performance and ability to quantify uncertainty. However, standard decision tree models rely on recursive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-20 Stamatina Lamprinakou , Huiyan Sang , Bledar A. Konomi , Ligang Lu