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We survey the 'generalized fractional Poisson process' (GFPP). The GFPP is a renewal process generalizing Laskin's fractional Poisson counting process and was first introduced by Cahoy and Polito. The GFPP contains two index parameters with…
In this paper, we attempt to detect an inflection or change-point resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic on supply chain data received from a large furniture company. To accomplish this, we utilize a modified CUSUM (Cumulative Sum) procedure…
Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…
This paper proposes a new approach for change point detection in multivariate Hawkes processes using Fr\'echet statistic of a network. The method splits the point process into overlapping windows, estimates kernel matrices in each window,…
Non-conjugate Gaussian processes (NCGPs) define a flexible probabilistic framework to model categorical, ordinal and continuous data, and are widely used in practice. However, exact inference in NCGPs is prohibitively expensive for large…
Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and…
We investigate applications of deep neural networks to a point process having an intensity with mixing covariates processes as input. Our generic model includes Cox-type models and marked point processes as well as multivariate point…
Tasks such as record linkage and multi-target tracking, which involve reconstructing the set of objects that underlie some observed data, are particularly challenging for probabilistic inference. Recent work has achieved efficient and…
Quadratic Hawkes (QHawkes) processes have proved effective at reproducing the statistics of price changes, capturing many of the stylised facts of financial markets. Motivated by the recently reported strong occurrence of endogenous…
A non-Markovian counting process, the `generalized fractional Poisson process' (GFPP) introduced by Cahoy and Polito in 2013 is analyzed. The GFPP contains two index parameters $0<\beta\leq 1$, $\alpha >0$ and a time scale parameter.…
In this paper, we provide upper bounds on the d2 distance between a large class of functionals of a multivariate compound Hawkes process and a given Gaussian vector. This is proven using Malliavin's calculus defined on an underlying Poisson…
Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes whose intensity depends on the past history, and is in general non-Markovian. Limit theorems for Hawkes processes in various asymptotic regimes have been studied in the literature. In…
Multiproposal MCMC (MP-MCMC) algorithms use clouds of proposals to efficiently traverse state spaces and overcome complex target geometries. While MCMC methods are embarrassingly parallel by nature, the non-trivial forms of parallelism…
In this work we introduce a mixture of GPs to address the data association problem, i.e. to label a group of observations according to the sources that generated them. Unlike several previously proposed GP mixtures, the novel mixture has…
We prove a central limit type theorem for critical marked Hawkes processes. We study the case where the marks are i.i.d. with nonnegative values and their common distribution is either heavy tailed or has finite variance. The kernel…
Terrorist activities often exhibit temporal and spatial clustering, making the multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) a useful statistical model for analysing terrorism across different geographic regions. However, terror attack data from the…
Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals - such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors - and not the exact…
As an extension of self-exciting Hawkes process, the multivariate Hawkes process models counting processes of different types of random events with mutual excitement. In this paper, we present a perfect sampling algorithm that can generate…
Hawkes processes are a class of point processes that have the ability to model the self- and mutual-exciting phenomena. Although the classic Hawkes processes cover a wide range of applications, their expressive ability is limited due to…
Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance and many other fields. In this paper, we obtain a functional…