Related papers: Superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA
Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…
In this paper, we introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of…
We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…
We study a simple case of the susceptible-weakened-infected-removed model in regular random graphs in a situation where an epidemic starts from a finite fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds). Previous studies have shown that,…
Epidemics unfold by means of a spreading process from each infected individual to a random number of secondary cases. It has been claimed that the so-called superspreading events in COVID-19 are governed by a power-law tailed distribution…
A comprehensive retrospective analysis of public health interventions, such as large scale testing, quarantining, and contact tracing, can help identify mechanisms most effective in mitigating COVID-19. We investigate China based SARS-CoV-2…
Contaminated objects or surfaces, referred to as fomites, play a critical role in the spread of viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. The long persistence of viruses (hours to days) on surfaces…
We analyze risk factors correlated with the initial transmission growth rate of the recent COVID-19 pandemic in different countries. The number of cases follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion; we chose as a starting…
COVID-19 is not a universal killer. We study the spread of COVID-19 at the county level for the United States up until the 15$^{th}$ of August, 2020. We show that the prevalence of the disease and the death rate are correlated with the…
The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the…
Latin America is experiencing severe impacts of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, but poverty and weak public health institutions hamper gathering the kind of refined data needed to inform classical SEIR models of epidemics. We present an…
We study the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly over all graphs with certain critical, heavy-tailed degree distributions. For this model, each vertex infects all its susceptible neighbors and…
We propose a partial identification method for estimating disease prevalence from serology studies. Our data are results from antibody tests in some population sample, where the test parameters, such as the true/false positive rates, are…
The U.S. Covid-19 data exhibit a high-frequency oscillation along a low-frequency wave for outbreaks. There is no model to account for it. A modified SIR model is proposed to explain this spiking phenomenon. It is also used to best-fit the…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has quickly grown from a regional outbreak in Wuhan, China to a global pandemic. Early estimates of the epidemic growth and incubation period of COVID-19 may have been biased due to sample selection.…
The response of many governments to the COVID-19 pandemic has involved measures to control within- and between-household transmission, providing motivation to improve understanding of the absolute and relative risks in these contexts. Here,…
During a long-running pandemic a pathogen can mutate, producing new strains with different epidemiological parameters. Existing approaches to epidemic modelling only consider one virus strain. We have developed a modified SEIR model to…
In March of 2020, many U.S. state governments encouraged or mandated restrictions on social interactions to slow the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that has spread to nearly 180 countries.…
The transmission and evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are of paramount importance to the controlling and combating of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Currently, near 15,000 SARS-CoV-2…