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Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

We use decision theory to confront uncertainty that is sufficiently broad to incorporate "models as approximations." We presume the existence of a featured collection of what we call "structured models" that have explicit substantive…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-08-22 Simone Cerreia-Vioglio , Lars Peter Hansen , Fabio Maccheroni , Massimo Marinacci

In classic robust optimization, it is assumed that a set of possible parameter realizations, the uncertainty set, is modeled in a previous step and part of the input. As recent work has shown, finding the most suitable uncertainty set is in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-18 André Chassein , Marc Goerigk

Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-28 Matthew J. Vowels

Robust optimization (RO) provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but its performance critically depends on the choice of the uncertainty set. While large sets ensure reliability, they often lead to overly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Shuyi Chen , Wenbin Zhou , Shixiang Zhu

For parameterized mixed-binary optimization problems, we construct local decision rules that prescribe near-optimal courses of action across a set of parameter values. The decision rules stem from solving risk-adaptive training problems…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-24 Johannes O. Royset , Miguel A. Lejeune

Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Jianguo Huang , Huajun Xi , Linjun Zhang , Huaxiu Yao , Yue Qiu , Hongxin Wei

In many situations, the decision maker observes items in sequence and needs to determine whether or not to retain a particular item immediately after it is observed. Any decision rule creates a set of items that are selected. We consider…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Abba M. Krieger , Moshe Pollak , Ester Samuel-Cahn

Machine learning models trained on uncurated datasets can often end up adversely affecting inputs belonging to underrepresented groups. To address this issue, we consider the problem of adaptively constructing training sets which allow us…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Shubhanshu Shekhar , Greg Fields , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Tara Javidi

In recent years, the development of large pretrained language models, such as BERT and GPT, significantly improved information extraction systems on various tasks, including relation classification. State-of-the-art systems are highly…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-08-07 Lars Klöser , Andre Büsgen , Philipp Kohl , Bodo Kraft , Albert Zündorf

In various areas of computer science, the problem of dealing with a set of constraints arises. If the set of constraints is unsatisfiable, one may ask for a minimal description of the reason for this unsatisifi- ability. Minimal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-06-13 Jaroslav Bendik , Nikola Benes , Ivana Cerna , Jiri Barnat

Optimal treatment rules can improve health outcomes on average by assigning a treatment associated with the most desirable outcome to each individual. Due to an unknown data generation mechanism, it is appealing to use flexible models to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-21 Lingjie Shen , Gijs Geleijnse , Maurits Kaptein

The true process that generated data cannot be determined when multiple explanations are possible. Prediction requires a model of the probability that a process, chosen randomly from the set of candidate explanations, generates some future…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-04-18 Oscar Stiffelman

We develop a new approach to multi-label conformal prediction in which we aim to output a precise set of promising prediction candidates with a bounded number of incorrect answers. Standard conformal prediction provides the ability to adapt…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-16 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

While utilization of digital agents to support crucial decision making is increasing, trust in suggestions made by these agents is hard to achieve. However, it is essential to profit from their application, resulting in a need for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-21 Michael Heider , Helena Stegherr , Jonathan Wurth , Roman Sraj , Jörg Hähner

Large-scale supervised classification algorithms, especially those based on deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs), require vast amounts of training data to achieve state-of-the-art performance. Decreasing this data requirement would…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-06-15 Maya Kabkab , Azadeh Alavi , Rama Chellappa

The standard rational choice model describes individuals as making choices by selecting the best option from a menu. A wealth of evidence instead suggests that individuals often filter menus into smaller sets - consideration sets - from…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-01-16 Tonna Emenuga

Uncertainty in optimization is often represented as stochastic parameters in the optimization model. In Predict-Then-Optimize approaches, predictions of a machine learning model are used as values for such parameters, effectively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Pieter Smet

Rational decision making in its linguistic description means making logical decisions. In essence, a rational agent optimally processes all relevant information to achieve its goal. Rationality has two elements and these are the use of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-14 Tshilidzi Marwala

Risk scoring systems are widely used in high-stakes domains to assist decision-making. However, existing approaches often focus on optimizing predictive accuracy or likelihood-based criteria, which may not align with the main goal of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Wenhao Chi , Ş. İlker Birbil
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