Related papers: On Accuracy and Coherence with Infinite Opinion Se…
A fundamental question in causal inference is whether it is possible to reliably infer manipulation effects from observational data. There are a variety of senses of asymptotic reliability in the statistical literature, among which the most…
We study how to infer new choices from previous choices in a conservative manner. To make such inferences, we use the theory of choice functions: a unifying mathematical framework for conservative decision making that allows one to impose…
In a recent work we have shown how to construct an information algebra of coherent sets of gambles defined on general possibility spaces. Here we analyze the connection of such an algebra with the set algebra of subsets of the possibility…
Choice functions constitute a simple, direct and very general mathematical framework for modelling choice under uncertainty. In particular, they are able to represent the set-valued choices that typically arise from applying decision rules…
When conducting inference on partially identified parameters, confidence regions may cover the whole identified set with a prescribed probability, to which we will refer as set coverage, or they may cover each of its point with a prescribed…
The classical concept of bounded completeness and its relation to sufficiency and ancillarity play a fundamental role in unbiased estimation, unbiased testing, and the validity of inference in the presence of nuisance parameters. In this…
Probabilistic programs are typically normal-looking programs describing posterior probability distributions. They intrinsically code up randomized algorithms and have long been at the heart of modern machine learning and approximate…
In this paper we formulate the problem of inference under incomplete information in very general terms. This includes modelling the process responsible for the incompleteness, which we call the incompleteness process. We allow the process…
Various semantics for studying the square of opposition and the hexagon of opposition have been proposed recently. We interpret sentences by imprecise (set-valued) probability assessments on a finite sequence of conditional events. We…
A relatively new topic in computability theory is the study of notions of computation that are robust against mistakes on some kind of small set. However, despite the recent popularity of this topic relatively foundational questions about…
Factual consistency is one of important summary evaluation dimensions, especially as summary generation becomes more fluent and coherent. The ESTIME measure, recently proposed specifically for factual consistency, achieves high correlations…
We argue that Godel's completeness theorem is equivalent to completability of consistent theories, and Godel's incompleteness theorem is equivalent to the fact that this completion is not constructive, in the sense that there are some…
Prediction, where observed data is used to quantify uncertainty about a future observation, is a fundamental problem in statistics. Prediction sets with coverage probability guarantees are a common solution, but these do not provide…
Coherence is an essential property of well-written texts, that refers to the way textual units relate to one another. In the era of generative AI, coherence assessment is essential for many NLP tasks; summarization, generation, long-form…
This article reviews and develops an epistemological tradition in the philosophy of science, known as convergentism, which holds that inference methods should be assessed based on their ability to converge to the truth across a range of…
Providing natural language explanations for recommendations is particularly useful from the perspective of a non-expert user. Although several methods for providing such explanations have recently been proposed, we argue that an important…
A subjective expected utility policy making centre, managing complex, dynamic systems, needs to draw on the expertise of a variety of disparate panels of experts and integrate this information coherently. To achieve this, diverse supporting…
In this work, we develop a formal system of inductive logic. It uses an infinitary language that allows for countable conjunctions and disjunctions. It is based on a set of nine syntactic rules of inductive inference, and contains classical…
This article presents a new argument against many forms of moral and prudential value incompleteness. The argument relies on two central principles: (i) a weak "negative dominance" principle, to the effect that Lottery 1 is better than…
This article focuses on the importance of the precise calculation of similarity factors between papers and reviewers for performing a fair and accurate automatic assignment of reviewers to papers. It suggests that papers and reviewers'…