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We propose a novel framework for modeling time-varying persistence in economic time series, allowing for smoothly evolving heterogeneity in shock dynamics. We leverage localized regression techniques to flexibly identify changes in…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-06 Jozef Barunik , Lukas Vacha

This paper studies the economic role of persistent dispersion in allocations across agents. We develop a tractable model in which firms allocate resources under imperfect information and behavioral updating, generating sustained…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-04-02 Nazaria Solferino

The dynamics of many socioeconomic systems is determined by the decision making process of agents. The decision process depends on agent's characteristics, such as preferences, risk aversion, behavioral biases, etc.. In addition, in some…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 Gabriella Vaglica , Fabrizio Lillo , Esteban Moro , Rosario N. Mantegna

Two approaches to incorporate heterogeneity in discrete models are compared. In the first, standard approach, the heterogeneity is dictated by geometrical structure of the discrete system. In the second approach, the heterogeneity is…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Jan Raisinger , Qiwei Zhang , John E. Bolander , Jan Eliáš

The spread of information through socio-technical systems determines which individuals are the first to gain access to opportunities and insights. Yet, the pathways through which information flows can be skewed, leading to systematic…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-11-12 Moritz Laber , Samantha Dies , Joseph Ehlert , Brennan Klein , Tina Eliassi-Rad

The rock heterogeneity exists widely in fault zones; however, the intrinsic mechanism of how it affects the mechanical behavior of faults is poorly understood. To develop a quantitative understanding of the effect of the rock heterogeneity…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-11-29 Shaobo Han , Xiaoying Zhuang , Quanzhou Yao , Qianlong Zhou , Xiaodong Hu

We study the distributional implications of uncertainty shocks by developing a model that links macroeconomic aggregates to the US distribution of earnings and consumption. We find that: initially, the fraction of low-earning workers…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-20 Florian Huber , Massimiliano Marcellino , Tommaso Tornese

We study a self-reflexive DSGE model with heterogeneous households, aimed at characterising the impact of economic recessions on the different strata of the society. Our framework allows to analyse the combined effect of income inequalities…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-01-15 Federico Guglielmo Morelli , Michael Benzaquen , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud , Marco Tarzia

How, and to what extent, does an interconnected financial system endogenously amplify external shocks? This paper attempts to reconcile some apparently different views emerged after the 2008 crisis regarding the nature and the relevance of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-08-30 Gabriele Visentin , Stefano Battiston , Marco D'Errico

Jarring events inspiring reflection, known as ``shocks" in the literature, are the motive force in explaining changes in employee embeddedness and retention within the unfolding model of labor turnover. Substantial research effort has…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-11 Andrew Balthrop , Hyunseok Jung

The dynamics of herd immunity depend crucially on the interaction between collective social behavior and disease transmission, but the role of heterogeneity in this context frequently remains unclear. Here, we dissect this co-evolutionary…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-02-05 Mehran Noori , Nahid Azimi-Tafreshi , Mohammad Salahshour

We study the effects of financial shocks on the United States economy by using a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that exploits the non-normalities in the data. We use this method to uniquely identify the model and…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-08 Olli Palmén

Using rich Swedish administrative data, we apply causal machine learning methods to study how earnings losses after job displacement vary with observable characteristics that may be relevant for targeting policy interventions for workers.…

General Economics · Economics 2026-03-17 Susan Athey , Lisa K. Simon , Oskar N. Skans , Johan Vikstrom , Yaroslav Yakymovych

The effect of a constant applied external force, induced for instance by an electric or gravitational field, on the dispersion of Brownian particles in periodic media with spatially varying diffusivity, and thus mobility, is studied. We…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-07-17 Thomas Guérin , David S Dean

Threats on the stability of a financial system may severely affect the functioning of the entire economy, and thus considerable emphasis is placed on the analyzing the cause and effect of such threats. The financial crisis in the current…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-10-28 Piotr Berman , Bhaskar DasGupta , Lakshmi Kaligounder , Marek Karpinski

Complex contagions describe systems where the probability or rate of contagious transmission is a nonlinear function of the exposure to contagious agents. These models were first studied theoretically but have since been used to capture…

This paper describes an agent-based model of interacting firms, in which interacting firm agents rationally invest capital and labor in order to maximize payoff. Both transactions and production are taken into account in this model. First,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-13 Yuichi Ikeda , Hideaki Aoyama , Hiroshi Iyetomi , Yoshi Fujiwara , Wataru Souma , Taisei Kaizoji

We propose a new framework for measuring connectedness among financial variables that arises due to heterogeneous frequency responses to shocks. To estimate connectedness in short-, medium-, and long-term financial cycles, we introduce a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-20 Jozef Barunik , Tomas Krehlik

Vector autoregression is an essential tool in empirical macroeconomics and finance for understanding the dynamic interdependencies among multivariate time series. In this study, we expand the scope of vector autoregression by incorporating…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-03-21 Yunyun Wang , Tatsushi Oka , Dan Zhu

We analyze the stability of financial investment networks, where financial institutions hold overlapping portfolios of assets. We consider the effect of portfolio diversification and heterogeneous investments using a random matrix dynamical…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-03 Preben Forer , Barak Budnick , Pierpaolo Vivo , Sabrina Aufiero , Silvia Bartolucci , Fabio Caccioli