Related papers: Extreme event probability estimation using PDE-con…

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

Physical systems whose dynamics are governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) find applications in numerous fields, from engineering design to weather forecasting. The process of obtaining the solution from such PDEs may be…

Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier…

Extreme events arising in georeferenced processes can take various forms, such as occurring in isolated patches or stretching contiguously over large areas, and can further vary with the spatial location and the extremeness of the events.…

This work employs variational techniques to revisit and expand the construction and analysis of extreme value processes. These techniques permit a novel study of spatial statistics of the location of minimizing events. We develop integral…

In this chapter, we illustrate the use of split bulk-tail models and subasymptotic models motivated by extreme-value theory in the context of hazard assessment for earthquake-induced landslides. A spatial joint areal model is presented for…

Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses…

This work presents a systematic framework for improving the predictions of statistical quantities for turbulent systems, with a focus on correcting climate simulations obtained by coarse-scale models. While high resolution simulations or…

Machine learning models play a vital role in the prediction task in several fields of study. In this work, we utilize the ability of machine learning algorithms to predict the occurrence of extreme events in a nonlinear mechanical system.…

In this paper, we provide finite sample results to assess the consistency of Generalized Pareto regression trees, as tools to perform extreme value regression. The results that we provide are obtained from concentration inequalities, and…

In many applied fields, the prediction of more severe events than those already recorded is crucial for safeguarding against potential future calamities. What-if analyses, which evaluate hypothetical scenarios up to the worst-case event,…

We propose a physics-constrained machine learning method-based on reservoir computing- to time-accurately predict extreme events and long-term velocity statistics in a model of turbulent shear flow. The method leverages the strengths of two…

We consider the problem of autonomous navigation using limited information from a remote sensor network. Because the remote sensors are power and bandwidth limited, we use event-triggered (ET) estimation to manage communication costs. We…

The control and risk assessment in complex information systems require to take into account extremes arising from nodes with large node degrees. Various sampling techniques like a Page Rank random walk, a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain…

The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…

Occurrences of tropical cyclones at a location are rare, and for many locations, only short periods of observations or hindcasts are available. Hence, estimation of return values (corresponding to a period considerably longer than that for…

The occurrence of some extreme events (such as marine heatwaves or exceptional circulations) can cause other extreme events (such as heatwave, drought and flood). These concurrent extreme events have a great impact on environment and human…

Small islands in the vicinity of the mainland are believed to offer protection from wind and waves and thus coastal communities have been developed in these areas. However, what happens when it comes to tsunamis is not clear. Will these…

Extreme events frequently occur in real-world time series and often carry significant practical implications. In domains such as climate and healthcare, these events, such as floods, heatwaves, or acute medical episodes, can lead to serious…

Extreme values of real phenomena are events that occur with low frequency, but can have a large impact on real life. These are, in many practical problems, high-dimensional by nature (e.g. Tawn, 1990; Coles and Tawn, 1991). To study these…