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In the present paper we address the real-time detection problem of a change-point in the coefficients of a linear model with the possibility that the model errors are asymmetrical and that the explanatory variables number is large. We build…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-31 Gabriela Ciuperca

The purpose of this study is to provide a new methodology of how one can consistently estimate a change-point in time series data. In contrast with previous studies, the suggested methodology employs only the empirical spectral density and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-22 Gyorgy H. Terdik , Stergios B. Fotopoulos , Venkata K. Jandhyala

A Bayesian multiple change-point model is proposed to analyse violations of air quality standards by pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NO) and carbon monoxide (CO). The model is built on the assumption that the occurrence of…

Applications · Statistics 2010-12-10 Janos Gyarmati-Szabo , Leonid V. Bogachev , Haibo Chen

This paper studies theory and inference related to a class of time series models that incorporates nonlinear dynamics. It is assumed that the observations follow a one-parameter exponential family of distributions given an accompanying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-04-19 Richard A. Davis , Heng Liu

In this paper easily applicable techniques are devised for detecting changepoints in autocorrelated Gaussian sequences. Our method proceeds by sequential evaluation of a CUSUM-type test statistic, which is compared to a predefined…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-09 W. Ellens , J. Kuhn , M. Mandjes , P. Żuraniewski

We consider the problem of localization of Poisson source by the observations of inhomogeneous Poisson processes. We suppose that there are $k$ detectors on the plane and each detector provides the observations of Poisson processes whose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-19 Oleg V. Chernoyarov , Yury A. Kutoyants

Most of the literature on change-point analysis by means of hypothesis testing considers hypotheses of the form H0 : \theta_1 = \theta_2 vs. H1 : \theta_1 != \theta_2, where \theta_1 and \theta_2 denote parameters of the process before and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-26 Holger Dette , Dominik Wied

Classifier predictions often rely on the assumption that new observations come from the same distribution as training data. When the underlying distribution changes, so does the optimal classification rule, and performance may degrade. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-01 Ciaran Evans , Max G'Sell

We are concerned with the problem of detecting a single change point in the model parameters of time series data generated from an exponential family. In contrast to the existing literature, we allow that the true location of the change…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-07 Cassandra Milbradt

We propose a new class of sequential change point tests, both for changes in the mean parameter and in the overall distribution function. The methodology builds on a two-window inspection scheme (TWIN), which aggregates data into symmetric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-14 Patrick Bastian , Tim Kutta

We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-13 Hongyi Ding , Young Lee , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

We consider the sequential sampling of species, where observed samples are classified into the species they belong to. We are particularly interested in studying some quantities describing the sampling process when there is a new species…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-01 Servet Martínez , Javier Santibáñez

This work applies modern AI tools (transformers) to solving one of the oldest statistical problems: Poisson means under empirical Bayes (Poisson-EB) setting. In Poisson-EB a high-dimensional mean vector $\theta$ (with iid coordinates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Anzo Teh , Mark Jabbour , Yury Polyanskiy

We consider a change detection problem in which the arrival rate of a Poisson process changes suddenly at some unknown and unobservable disorder time. It is assumed that the prior distribution of the disorder time is known. The objective is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Erhan Bayraktar , Semih Sezer

When analysing time series an important issue is to decide whether the time series is stationary or a random walk. Relaxing these notions, we consider the problem to decide in favor of the I(0)- or I(1)-property. Fixed-sample statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-01 Ansgar Steland

In this article, we study sequential change-point methods for discretely observed generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with periodic drift. Two detection methods are proposed, and their respective performance is studied through…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Yunhong Lyu , Bouchra R. Nasri , Bruno N. Rémillard

We here propose a machine learning approach for monitoring particle detectors in real-time. The goal is to assess the compatibility of incoming experimental data with a reference dataset, characterising the data behaviour under normal…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2023-03-10 Gaia Grosso , Nicolò Lai , Marco Letizia , Jacopo Pazzini , Marco Rando , Lorenzo Rosasco , Andrea Wulzer , Marco Zanetti

Assuming a $q$-variant of the prime $k$-tuple conjecture uniformly, we compute mixed moments of the number of primes in disjoint short intervals and progressions, respectively. This involves estimating the mean of singular series along…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-26 Sun-Kai Leung

We consider an estimator for the location of a shift in the mean of long-range dependent sequences. The estimation is based on the two-sample Wilcoxon statistic. Consistency and the rate of convergence for the estimated change point are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-28 Annika Betken

We develop a testing procedure for distinguishing between a long-range dependent time series and a weakly dependent time series with change-points in the mean. In the simplest case, under the null hypothesis the time series is weakly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 István Berkes , Lajos Horváth , Piotr Kokoszka , Qi-Man Shao