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Due to the growing adoption of deep neural networks in many fields of science and engineering, modeling and estimating their uncertainties has become of primary importance. Despite the growing literature about uncertainty quantification in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Brian Staber , Sébastien Da Veiga

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

Deep learning (DL) has recently attracted increasing interest to improve object type classification for automotive radar.In addition to high accuracy, it is crucial for decision making in autonomous vehicles to evaluate the reliability of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Kanil Patel , William Beluch , Kilian Rambach , Adriana-Eliza Cozma , Michael Pfeiffer , Bin Yang

Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Andreas Lebedev , Abhinav Das , Sven Pappert , Stephan Schlüter

In chemistry, deep neural network models have been increasingly utilized in a variety of applications such as molecular property predictions, novel molecule designs, and planning chemical reactions. Despite the rapid increase in the use of…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2019-05-17 Seongok Ryu , Yongchan Kwon , Woo Youn Kim

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important for reliability assessment and enhancement of machine learning models. In deep learning, uncertainties arise not only from data, but also from the training procedure that often injects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-13 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

In consequential decision-making applications, mitigating unwanted biases in machine learning models that yield systematic disadvantage to members of groups delineated by sensitive attributes such as race and gender is one key intervention…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Prasanna Sattigeri , Soumya Ghosh , Inkit Padhi , Pierre Dognin , Kush R. Varshney

Datasets in engineering applications are often limited and contaminated, mainly due to unavoidable measurement noise and signal distortion. Thus, using conventional data-driven approaches to build a reliable discriminative model, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-14 Xihaier Luo , Ahsan Kareem

Uncertainty quantification is at the core of the reliability and robustness of machine learning. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework to dissect the uncertainty, especially the \textit{epistemic} component, in deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Dennis Ulmer , Christian Hardmeier , Jes Frellsen

Traditional deep learning (DL) models are powerful classifiers, but many approaches do not provide uncertainties for their estimates. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DL models have received increased attention in the literature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-14 Daniel Ries , Joshua Michalenko , Tyler Ganter , Rashad Imad-Fayez Baiyasi , Jason Adams

Deep neural network (DNN) models have achieved state-of-the-art predictive accuracy in a wide range of supervised learning applications. However, accurately quantifying the uncertainty in DNN predictions remains a challenging task. For…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Daiwei Zhang , Tianci Liu , Jian Kang

The hybrid neural differentiable models mark a significant advancement in the field of scientific machine learning. These models, integrating numerical representations of known physics into deep neural networks, offer enhanced predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Deepak Akhare , Tengfei Luo , Jian-Xun Wang

The opaque nature of transformer-based models, particularly in applications susceptible to unethical practices such as dark-patterns in user interfaces, requires models that integrate uncertainty quantification to enhance trust in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Javier Muñoz , Álvaro Huertas-García , Carlos Martí-González , Enrique De Miguel Ambite

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Contrastive approaches to representation learning have recently shown great promise. In contrast to generative approaches, these contrastive models learn a deterministic encoder with no notion of uncertainty or confidence. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-06 Mike Wu , Noah Goodman

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-14 Levente Foldesi , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Deep learning (DL) models have received particular attention in medical imaging due to their promising pattern recognition capabilities. However, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) require a huge amount of data, and because of the lack of…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-07-27 Donya Khaledyan , AmirReza Tajally , Ali Sarkhosh , Afshar Shamsi , Hamzeh Asgharnezhad , Abbas Khosravi , Saeid Nahavandi

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific and engineering domains. However, DNNs can make unexpected, incorrect, yet overconfident predictions, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Wenchong He , Zhe Jiang , Tingsong Xiao , Zelin Xu , Yukun Li