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Cross-Validation (CV) is the default choice for evaluating the performance of machine learning models. Despite its wide usage, their statistical benefits have remained half-understood, especially in challenging nonparametric regimes. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Garud Iyengar , Henry Lam , Tianyu Wang

Predictive models ground many state-of-the-art developments in statistical brain image analysis: decoding, MVPA, searchlight, or extraction of biomarkers. The principled approach to establish their validity and usefulness is…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-06-26 Gaël Varoquaux

When performing supervised learning with the model selected using validation error from sample splitting and cross validation, the minimum value of the validation error can be biased downward. We propose two simple methods that use the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-13 Leying Guan

In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for empirical risk minimizers. In the general setting, we prove sanity-check bounds in the spirit of \cite{KR99}…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-11-02 Matthieu Cornec

Cross-validation is a widely used technique for evaluating the performance of prediction models, ranging from simple binary classification to complex precision medicine strategies. It helps correct for optimism bias in error estimates,…

We conduct a non asymptotic study of the Cross Validation (CV) estimate of the generalization risk for learning algorithms dedicated to extreme regions of the covariates space. In this Extreme Value Analysis context, the risk function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Anass Aghbalou , Patrice Bertail , François Portier , Anne Sabourin

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-05 Yan Sun , Pratik Chaudhari , Ian J. Barnett , Edgar Dobriban

Risk estimation is at the core of many learning systems. The importance of this problem has motivated researchers to propose different schemes, such as cross validation, generalized cross validation, and Bootstrap. The theoretical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-19 Ji Xu , Arian Maleki , Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Daniel Hsu

Cross-validation (CV) is a popular method for model-selection. Unfortunately, it is not immediately obvious how to apply CV to unsupervised or exploratory contexts. This thesis discusses some extensions of cross-validation to unsupervised…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-17 Patrick O. Perry

AB-testing is a very popular technique in web companies since it makes it possible to accurately predict the impact of a modification with the simplicity of a random split across users. One of the critical aspects of an AB-test is its…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-02-02 Cyrille Dubarry

Statistical machine learning models should be evaluated and validated before putting to work. Conventional k-fold Monte Carlo Cross-Validation (MCCV) procedure uses a pseudo-random sequence to partition instances into k subsets, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-05 Liang Guo , Jianya Liu , Ruodan Lu

When selecting a classification algorithm to be applied to a particular problem, one has to simultaneously select the best algorithm for that dataset \emph{and} the best set of hyperparameters for the chosen model. The usual approach is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-26 Jacques Wainer , Gavin Cawley

Theoretical developments on cross validation (CV) have mainly focused on selecting one among a list of finite-dimensional models (e.g., subset or order selection in linear regression) or selecting a smoothing parameter (e.g., bandwidth for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Yuhong Yang

Many modern data analyses benefit from explicitly modeling dependence structure in data -- such as measurements across time or space, ordered words in a sentence, or genes in a genome. A gold standard evaluation technique is structured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-02 Soumya Ghosh , William T. Stephenson , Tin D. Nguyen , Sameer K. Deshpande , Tamara Broderick

Symbolic Regression remains an NP-Hard problem, with extensive research focusing on AI models for this task. Transformer models have shown promise in Symbolic Regression, but performance suffers with smaller datasets. We propose applying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Kaustubh Kislay , Shlok Singh , Soham Joshi , Rohan Dutta , Jay Shim , George Flint , Kevin Zhu

Used to estimate the risk of an estimator or to perform model selection, cross-validation is a widespread strategy because of its simplicity and its apparent universality. Many results exist on the model selection performances of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-01 Sylvain Arlot , Alain Celisse

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the main tools for performance estimation and parameter tuning in machine learning. The general recipe for computing CV estimate is to run a learning algorithm separately for each CV fold, a computationally…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-02 Pooria Joulani , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

Cross-validation (CV) is routinely used across the sciences to select models and tune parameters, and the resulting choices are often interpreted as substantive scientific conclusions (e.g., which variables, mechanisms, or risk factors are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Kenichiro McAlinn , Kōsaku Takanashi

In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for stable predictors in the context of risk assessment. The notion of stability has been first introduced by \cite{DEWA79}…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-11-24 Matthieu Cornec

We consider the problem of estimating confidence intervals for the mean of a random variable, where the goal is to produce the smallest possible interval for a given number of samples. While minimax optimal algorithms are known for this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-19 Shengjia Zhao , Christopher Yeh , Stefano Ermon