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We define two minimum distance estimators for dependent data by minimizing some approximated Maximum Mean Discrepancy distances between the true empirical distribution of observations and their assumed (parametric) model distribution. When…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-19 Pierre Alquier , Jean-David Fermanian , Benjamin Poignard

We describe a (nonparametric) prediction algorithm for spatial data, based on a canonical factorization of the spectral density function. We provide theoretical results showing that the predictor has desirable asymptotic properties. Finite…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-09 Abhimanyu Gupta , Javier Hidalgo

Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations can be used to compute the likelihood of extreme or rare events in stochastic dynamical systems via the solution of an optimization problem. The approach gives exponential estimates that often…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-09-17 Tobias Grafke , Tobias Schäfer , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Nonparametric series regression often involves specification search over the tuning parameter, i.e., evaluating estimates and confidence intervals with a different number of series terms. This paper develops pointwise and uniform inferences…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-02-26 Byunghoon Kang

Many statistical applications involve models for which it is difficult to evaluate the likelihood, but from which it is relatively easy to sample. Approximate Bayesian computation is a likelihood-free method for implementing Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-29 Wentao Li , Paul Fearnhead

In this paper, we present a theoretical and computational workflow for the non-parametric Bayesian inference of drift and diffusion functions of autonomous diffusion processes. We base the inference on the partial differential equations…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Maximilian Kruse , Sebastian Krumscheid

Maximum likelihood estimators for time-dependent mean functions within Gaussian processes are provided in the context of continuous observations. We find the widest possible class of mean functions for which the likelihood function can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-09 Mitsuki Kobayashi , Yuto Nishiwaki , Yasutaka Shimizu , Nobutoki Takaoka

Hypoelliptic diffusion processes can be used to model a variety of phenomena in applications ranging from molecular dynamics to audio signal analysis. We study parameter estimation for such processes in situations where we observe some…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-10-30 Y. Pokern , A. M. Stuart , P. Wiberg

We develop a novel continuous-time asymptotic framework for inference on whether the predictive ability of a given forecast model remains stable over time. We formally define forecast instability from the economic forecaster's perspective…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-12-04 Alessandro Casini

The purpose of this article is to develop a general parametric estimation theory that allows the derivation of the limit distribution of estimators in non-regular models where the true parameter value may lie on the boundary of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Junichiro Yoshida , Nakahiro Yoshida

The empirical distribution function assigns mass $1/n$ to each of the $n$ observations in a sample. As these are highly variable, estimation error may be reduced by replacing them with estimated observations that are asymptotically less…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Tommaso Lando , Lorenzo Tedesco

We find the asymptotic distribution of the multi-dimensional multi-scale and kernel estimators for high-frequency financial data with microstructure. Sampling times are allowed to be asynchronous and endogenous. In the process, we show that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-05 Markus Bibinger , Per A. Mykland

We consider identification and inference about mean functionals of observed covariates and an outcome variable subject to nonignorable missingness. By leveraging a shadow variable, we establish a necessary and sufficient condition for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-07 Wei Li , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Predictive mean matching imputation is popular for handling item nonresponse in survey sampling. In this article, we study the asymptotic properties of the predictive mean matching estimator of the population mean. For variance estimation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-16 Shu Yang , Jae Kwang Kim

We consider nonparametric invariant density and drift estimation for a class of multidimensional degenerate resp. hypoelliptic diffusion processes, so-called stochastic damping Hamiltonian systems or kinetic diffusions, under anisotropic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-24 Niklas Dexheimer , Claudia Strauch

A distributed average consensus algorithm in which every sensor transmits with bounded peak power is proposed. In the presence of communication noise, it is shown that the nodes reach consensus asymptotically to a finite random variable…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2015-06-15 Sivaraman Dasarathan , Cihan Tepedelenlioglu , Mahesh Banavar , Andreas Spanias

Parameter estimation in diffusion processes from discrete observations up to a first-hitting time is clearly of practical relevance, but does not seem to have been studied so far. In neuroscience, many models for the membrane potential…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-06 Enrico Bibbona , Susanne Ditlevsen

In this paper, we study the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for an event time distribution function at a point in the current status model with observation times supported on a grid of potentially unknown sparsity and with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-29 Runlong Tang , Moulinath Banerjee , Michael R. Kosorok

Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed under a variety of assumptions, often -- for instance, in standard conformal prediction -- relying on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Edgar Dobriban , Mengxin Yu

We propose an iterative estimating equations procedure for analysis of longitudinal data. We show that, under very mild conditions, the probability that the procedure converges at an exponential rate tends to one as the sample size…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-12-18 Jiming Jiang , Yihui Luan , You-Gan Wang