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We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-23 Beniamino Hadj-Amar , Jack Jewson , Mark Fiecas

Experiments, in particular on biological systems, typically probe lower-dimensional observables which are projections of high-dimensional dynamics. In order to infer consistent models capturing the relevant dynamics of the system, it is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-11-18 Xizhu Zhao , Dmitrii E. Makarov , Aljaž Godec

Longitudinal voice biomarkers provide a non-invasive source of information for monitoring Parkinson's disease progression, but their statistical analysis is difficult because repeated measurements from the same subject are correlated,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Ran Tong , Lanruo Wang , Tong Wang , Wei Yan

Neural activity data can be associated with behavioral and physiological variables by analyzing their changes in the temporal domain. However, such relationships are often difficult to quantify and test, requiring advanced computational…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-23 Nick Yao Larsen , Laura Paulsen , Christine Ahrends , Anderson M. Winkler , Diego Vidaurre

In health cohort studies, repeated measures of markers are often used to describe the natural history of a disease. Joint models allow to study their evolution by taking into account the possible informative dropout usually due to clinical…

Round-Trip Times are one of the most commonly collected performance metrics in computer networks. Measurement platforms such as RIPE Atlas provide researchers and network operators with an unprecedented amount of historical Internet delay…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Maxime Mouchet , Sandrine Vaton , Thierry Chonavel , Emile Aben , Jasper den Hertog

We propose DenseHMM - a modification of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that allows to learn dense representations of both the hidden states and the observables. Compared to the standard HMM, transition probabilities are not atomic but composed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-18 Joachim Sicking , Maximilian Pintz , Maram Akila , Tim Wirtz

The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state…

Applications · Statistics 2014-01-16 Vasanthan Raghavan , Aram Galstyan , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

We study the behavior of a Time-Aware Long Short-Term Memory Autoencoder, a state-of-the-art method, in the context of learning latent representations from irregularly sampled patient data. We identify a key issue in the way such recurrent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-12 Duc Thanh Anh Luong , Varun Chandola

To empower users of wearable medical devices, it is important to enable methods that facilitate reflection on previous care to improve future outcomes. In this work, we conducted a two-phase user-study involving patients, caregivers, and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Temiloluwa Prioleau , Ashutosh Sabharwal , Madhuri M. Vasudevan

Disease progression modeling provides a robust framework to identify long-term disease trajectories from short-term biomarker data. It is a valuable tool to gain a deeper understanding of diseases with a long disease trajectory, such as…

This paper studies continuous authentication for touch interface based mobile devices. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based behavioral template training approach is presented, which does not require training data from other subjects other than…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2017-12-25 Aditi Roy , Tzipora Halevi , Nasir Memon

Mobile health (mHealth) leverages digital technologies, such as mobile phones, to capture objective, frequent, and real-world digital phenotypes from individuals, enabling the delivery of tailored interventions to accommodate substantial…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Xingche Guo , Zexi Cai , Yuanjia Wang , Donglin Zeng

Industrial processes generate a massive amount of monitoring data that can be exploited to uncover hidden time losses in the system. This can be used to enhance the accuracy of maintenance policies and increase the effectiveness of the…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-27 Fernando Miguelez , Josu Doncel , Maria Dolores Ugarte

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly used to model animal movement data and infer aspects of animal behavior. An HMM assumes that each data point from a time series of observations stems from one of $N$ possible states. The states are…

Current recommender systems exploit user and item similarities by collaborative filtering. Some advanced methods also consider the temporal evolution of item ratings as a global background process. However, all prior methods disregard the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-05-16 Subhabrata Mukherjee , Hemank Lamba , Gerhard Weikum

Medical researchers are coming to appreciate that many diseases are in fact complex, heterogeneous syndromes composed of subpopulations that express different variants of a related complication. Time series data extracted from individual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-30 Peter Schulam , Raman Arora

Data sets comprised of sequences of curves sampled at high frequencies in time are increasingly common in practice, but they can exhibit complicated dependence structures that cannot be modelled using common methods of Functional Data…

Dynamic modeling of longitudinal networks has been an increasingly important topic in applied research. While longitudinal network data commonly exhibit dramatic changes in its structures, existing methods have largely focused on modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-06 Jong Hee Park , Yunkyu Sohn

Predicting disease trajectories from electronic health records (EHRs) is a complex task due to major challenges such as data non-stationarity, high granularity of medical codes, and integration of multimodal data. EHRs contain both…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Sifal Klioui , Sana Sellami , Youssef Trardi