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When developing a clinical prediction model, the sample size of the development dataset is a key consideration. Small sample sizes lead to greater concerns of overfitting, instability, poor performance and lack of fairness. Previous…

When a planner must decide whether it has enough evidence to make a decision based on probability, it faces the sample size problem. Current planners using probabilities need not deal with this problem because they do not generate their…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Nathaniel G. Martin , James F. Allen

We consider an expected-value ranking and selection (R&S) problem where all k solutions' simulation outputs depend on a common parameter whose uncertainty can be modeled by a distribution. We define the most probable best (MPB) to be the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Taeho Kim , Kyoung-kuk Kim , Eunhye Song

In this paper, we develop an exact method for the determination of the minimum sample size for estimating the proportion of a finite population with prescribed margin of error and confidence level. By characterizing the behavior of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-03 Xinjia Chen

In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-06 Xiang Wan , Wenqian Wang , Jiming Liu , Tiejun Tong

In regression with random design, we study the problem of selecting a model that performs well for out-of-sample prediction. We do not assume that any of the candidate models under consideration are correct. Our analysis is based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-10-24 Hannes Leeb

For a regression problem with a binary label response, we examine the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the label probability conditional on the features. In a setting where we do not have any information about the underlying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-09 Rina Foygel Barber

The ranking and selection problem is a popular framework in the simulation literature for studying optimal information collection. We study a version of this problem in which the simulation output for each design is normally distributed…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Jianzhong Du , Ilya O. Ryzhov , Siyang Gao

Many decision problems in science, engineering and economics are affected by uncertain parameters whose distribution is only indirectly observable through samples. The goal of data-driven decision-making is to learn a decision from finitely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Daniel Kuhn , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Viet Anh Nguyen , Soroosh Shafieezadeh-Abadeh

Scientific modeling applications often require estimating a distribution of parameters consistent with a dataset of observations - an inference task also known as source distribution estimation. This problem can be ill-posed, however, since…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Julius Vetter , Guy Moss , Cornelius Schröder , Richard Gao , Jakob H. Macke

Quantization for a probability distribution refers to the idea of estimating a given probability by a discrete probability supported by a finite number of points. In this paper, firstly a general approach to this process is outlined using…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-26 Joseph Rosenblatt , Mrinal Kanti Roychowdhury

Many applications, including natural language processing, sensor networks, collaborative filtering, and federated learning, call for estimating discrete distributions from data collected in batches, some of which may be untrustworthy,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-26 Ayush Jain , Alon Orlitsky

Allocation of samples in stratified and/or multistage sampling is one of the central issues of sampling theory. In a survey of a population often the constraints for precision of estimators of subpopulations parameters have to be taken care…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-31 Jacek Wesolowski , Robert Wieczorkowski

The probabilities of causation are commonly used to solve decision-making problems. Tian and Pearl derived sharp bounds for the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Ang Li , Ruirui Mao , Judea Pearl

Simulation offers a simple and flexible way to estimate the power of a clinical trial when analytic formulae are not available. The computational burden of using simulation has, however, restricted its application to only the simplest of…

This study proposes a computationally efficient semiparametric distribution estimator, which is a slight modification of the naive mixture proposed by Schuster and Yakowitz (1985) and Olkin and Spiegelman (1987). The proposed method is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-12 Taku Moriyama

We consider a problem in parametric estimation: given $n$ samples from an unknown distribution, we want to estimate which distribution, from a given one-parameter family, produced the data. Following Schulman and Vazirani, we evaluate an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-15 Aaron Abrams , Sandy Ganzell , Henry Landau , Zeph Landau , James Pommersheim , Eric Zaslow

This research considers the ranking and selection (R&S) problem of selecting the optimal subset from a finite set of alternative designs. Given the total simulation budget constraint, we aim to maximize the probability of correctly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-04-25 Fei Gao , Zhongshun Shi , Siyang Gao , Hui Xiao

Sample size determination for a data set is an important statistical process for analyzing the data to an optimum level of accuracy and using minimum computational work. The applications of this process are credible in every domain which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-26 Siddhant Sahu , V. Sugumaran

We derive distributional limits for empirical transport distances between probability measures supported on countable sets. Our approach is based on sensitivity analysis of optimal values of infinite dimensional mathematical programs and a…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-18 Carla Tameling , Max Sommerfeld , Axel Munk
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