Related papers: Multivariate L\'evy-type drift change detection an…
We consider the problem of estimation of the drift parameter of an ergodic Ornstein--Uhlenbeck type process driven by a L\'evy process with heavy tails. The process is observed continuously on a long time interval $[0,T]$, $T\to\infty$. We…
Change point detection plays a fundamental role in many real-world applications, where the goal is to analyze and monitor the behaviour of a data stream. In this paper, we study change detection in binary streams. To this end, we use a…
We provide, in a general setting, explicit solutions for optimal stopping problems that involve a diffusion process and its running maximum. Besides, a new feature includes absorbing boundaries that vary with the value of the running…
Volatility estimation based on high-frequency data is key to accurately measure and control the risk of financial assets. A L\'{e}vy process with infinite jump activity and microstructure noise is considered one of the simplest, yet…
Motivated by an increasing demand for models that can effectively describe features of complex multivariate time series, e.g. from sensor data in biomechanics, motion analysis, and sports science, we introduce a novel state-space modeling…
We study SDE $$ d X_t = b(X_t) \, dt + A(X_{t-}) \, d Z_t, \quad X_{0} = x \in \mathbb{R}^d, \quad t \geq 0 $$ where $Z=(Z^1, \dots, Z^d)^T$, with $Z^i, i=1,\dots, d$ being independent one-dimensional symmetric jump L\'evy processes, not…
A Markov process is registered. At random moment $\theta$ the distribution of observed sequence changes. Using probability maximizing approach the optimal stopping rule for detecting the change is identified. Some explicit solution is…
In recent years, an intensive study of strong approximation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with a drift coefficient that may have discontinuities in space has begun. In many of these results it is assumed that the drift…
The paper addresses a joint sequential changepoint detection and identification/isolation problem for a general stochastic model, assuming that the observed data may be dependent and non-identically distributed, the prior distribution of…
We suppose that a L\'evy process is observed at discrete time points. Starting from an asymptotically minimax family of estimators for the continuous part of the L\'evy Khinchine characteristics, i.e., the covariance, we derive a…
Consider a large number of detectors each generating a data stream. The task is to detect online, distribution changes in a small fraction of the data streams. Previous approaches to this problem include the use of mixture likelihood ratios…
Trajectory prediction is central to the safe and seamless operation of autonomous vehicles (AVs). In deployment, however, prediction models inevitably face distribution shifts between training data and real-world conditions, where rare or…
The paper deals with disorders detection in the multivariate stochastic process. We consider the multidimensional Poisson process or the multivariate renewal process. This class of processes can be used as a description of the distributed…
We study the efficiency of random search processes based on L{\'e}vy flights with power-law distributed jump lengths in the presence of an external drift, for instance, an underwater current, an airflow, or simply the bias of the searcher…
This paper considers the quickest detection problem for hidden Markov models (HMMs) in a Bayesian setting. We construct an augmented HMM representation of the problem that allows the application of a dynamic programming approach to prove…
Changepoints are abrupt variations in the generative parameters of a data sequence. Online detection of changepoints is useful in modelling and prediction of time series in application areas such as finance, biometrics, and robotics. While…
The problem of quickest growing dynamic anomaly detection in sensor networks is studied. Initially, the observations at the sensors, which are sampled sequentially by the decision maker, are generated according to a pre-change distribution.…
We propose to use L\'evy {\alpha}-stable distributions for constructing priors for Bayesian inverse problems. The construction is based on Markov fields with stable-distributed increments. Special cases include the Cauchy and Gaussian…
Change point detection becomes more and more important as datasets increase in size, where unsupervised detection algorithms can help users process data. To detect change points, a number of unsupervised algorithms have been developed which…
There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…