Related papers: Edgeworth corrections for spot volatility estimato…
The problem of sums of independent, identically distributed random variables with stretched-exponential tails exhibits a dynamical phase transition and has recently reemerged in the context of active transport and condensation phenomena. We…
We develop closed-form expansions for the implied volatility of VIX options within the class of forward variance models. Our approach builds on weak-approximation techniques for VIX option prices and yields explicit implied volatility…
In this paper we examine the deviations from Gaussianity for two types of random variable converging to a normal distribution, namely sums of random variables generated by a deterministic discrete time map and a linearly damped variable…
We study Edgeworth expansions in limit theorems for self-normalized sums. Non-uniform bounds for expansions in the central limit theorem are established while only imposing minimal moment conditions. Within this result, we address the case…
We provide a comprehensive analysis of spot volatility inference in pure-jump semimartingales under two asymptotic settings: fixed-$k$, where each local window uses a fixed number of observations, and large-$k$, where this number grows with…
We consider estimation of the spot volatility in a stochastic boundary model with one-sided microstructure noise for high-frequency limit order prices. Based on discrete, noisy observations of an It\^o semimartingale with jumps and general…
In this study, we constitute an adaptive hedging method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to extract the adaptive hedging horizon and build a time series cross-validation method for robust hedging performance estimation.…
In this paper, we aim at estimating the quarticity of continuous It\^{o} semimartingales. Instead of using some classical estimators, we introduce a more intuitive one and establish a central limit theorem (CLT) for it, with a convergence…
We study the dynamics of the normal implied volatility in a local volatility model, using a small-time expansion in powers of maturity T. At leading order in this expansion, the asymptotics of the normal implied volatility is similar, up to…
Despite their deterministic nature, dynamical systems often exhibit seemingly random behaviour. Consequently, a dynamical system is usually represented by a probabilistic model of which the unknown parameters must be estimated using…
Edgeworth expansions of first and second order are established for general linear rank statistics under the null hypothesis with asymptotically ''sufficiently'' small remainder terms. The methods used are the Stein method combined with an…
An operator form of asymptotic expansions for Markov chains is established. Coefficients are given explicitly. Such expansions require a certain modification of the classical spectral method. They prove to be extremely useful within the…
We propose a method for constructing sparse high-frequency volatility estimators that are robust against change points in the spot volatility process. The estimators we propose are $\ell_1$-regularized versions of existing volatility…
In random matrix theory, the spectral distribution of the covariance matrix has been well studied under the large dimensional asymptotic regime when the dimensionality and the sample size tend to infinity at the same rate. However, most…
This paper introduces SpotV2Net, a multivariate intraday spot volatility forecasting model based on a Graph Attention Network architecture. SpotV2Net represents assets as nodes within a graph and includes non-parametric high-frequency…
Associated to each complex-valued random variable satisfying appropriate integrability conditions, we introduce a different generalization of the Stirling numbers of the second kind. Various equivalent definitions are provided. Attention,…
Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The…
We derive a higher-order asymptotic expansion of the conditional characteristic function of the increment of an It\^o semimartingale over a shrinking time interval. The spot characteristics of the It\^o semimartingale are allowed to have…
We consider sums of independent identically distributed random variables whose distributions have $d+1$ atoms. Such distributions never admit an Edgeworth expansion of order $d$ but we show that for almost all parameters the Edgeworth…
In order to study the geometry of interest rates market dynamics, Malliavin, Mancino and Recchioni [A non-parametric calibration of the HJM geometry: an application of It\^o calculus to financial statistics, {\it Japanese Journal of…