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Mixture models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used in machine learning to represent complex data distributions. A key challenge, especially in high-dimensional settings, is to determine the mixture order and estimate the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Srećko Đurašinović , Jean-Bernard Lasserre , Victor Magron

In this paper, we obtain quantitative, non-asymptotic, and data-dependent \textit{Bernstein-von Mises type} bounds on the normal approximation of the posterior distribution in exponential family models with arbitrary centring and scaling.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Adrian Fischer , Robert E. Gaunt , Gesine Reinert , Yvik Swan

We propose a new \textit{quadratic programming-based} method of approximating a nonstandard density using a multivariate Gaussian density. Such nonstandard densities usually arise while developing posterior samplers for unobserved…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-14 Abhishek K. Umrawal , Joshua C. C. Chan

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel

We present a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable from samples of the random variable. We conjecture that the confidence interval has guaranteed coverage, i.e., that it contains the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-05 Erik Learned-Miller , Philip S. Thomas

We establish fundamental limits on estimation accuracy for the noisy 20 questions problem with measurement-dependent noise and introduce optimal non-adaptive procedures that achieve these limits. The minimal achievable resolution is defined…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-01-12 Lin Zhou , Alfred Hero

This article deals with random projections applied as a data reduction technique for Bayesian regression analysis. We show sufficient conditions under which the entire $d$-dimensional distribution is approximately preserved under random…

The two-sample homogeneity testing problem is fundamental in statistics and becomes particularly challenging in high dimensions, where classical tests can suffer substantial power loss. We develop a learning-assisted procedure based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-30 Xiaoyu Hu , Zhenhua Lin

The Bruss-Robertson inequality gives a bound on the maximal number of elements of a random sample whose sum is less than a specified value, and the extension of that inequality which is given here neither requires the independence of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-06 J. Michael Steele

We study query time bounds for the fundamental problem of estimating the kernel mean $\frac1{|X|}\sum_{x\in X}\mathbf{k}(x,y)$ of a query $y$ in a finite dataset $X\subset\mathbb{R}^d$ up to a prescribed additive error $\varepsilon$. The…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Tal Wagner

We establish fundamental limits on estimation accuracy for the noisy 20 questions problem with measurement-dependent noise and introduce optimal non-adaptive procedures that achieve these limits. The minimal achievable resolution is defined…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-01-12 Lin Zhou , Alfred Hero

Linear regression is arguably the most widely used statistical method. With fixed regressors and correlated errors, the conventional wisdom is to modify the variance-covariance estimator to accommodate the known correlation structure of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-11 Zifeng Zhang , Peng Ding , Wen Zhou , Haonan Wang

In this paper, we study non-asymptotic deviation bounds of the least squares estimator in Gaussian AR($n$) processes. By relying on martingale concentration inequalities and a tail-bound for $\chi^2$ distributed variables, we provide a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-26 Rodrigo A. González , Cristian R. Rojas

This paper describes three methods for carrying out non-asymptotic inference on partially identified parameters that are solutions to a class of optimization problems. Applications in which the optimization problems arise include estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Joel L. Horowitz , Sokbae Lee

This work performs a non-asymptotic analysis of the generalized Lasso under the assumption of sub-exponential data. Our main results continue recent research on the benchmark case of (sub-)Gaussian sample distributions and thereby explore…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Martin Genzel , Christian Kipp

This paper builds on recent research that focuses on regression modeling of continuous bounded data, such as proportions measured on a continuous scale. Specifically, it deals with beta regression models with mixed effects from a Bayesian…

The Laplace approximation is a popular method for constructing a Gaussian approximation to the Bayesian posterior and thereby approximating the posterior mean and variance. But approximation quality is a concern. One might consider using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Mikołaj J. Kasprzak , Ryan Giordano , Tamara Broderick

We establish thresholds for the feasibility of random multi-graph alignment in two models. In the Gaussian model, we demonstrate an "all-or-nothing" phenomenon: above a critical threshold, exact alignment is achievable with high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Louis Vassaux , Laurent Massoulié

It is known that the number of points in the largest cluster of a percolating Poisson process restricted to a large finite box is asymptotically normal. In this note, we establish a rate of convergence for the statement. As each point in…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-08 Tiffany Y. Y. Lo , Aihua Xia

We consider learning methods based on the regularization of a convex empirical risk by a squared Hilbertian norm, a setting that includes linear predictors and non-linear predictors through positive-definite kernels. In order to go beyond…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-19 Ulysse Marteau-Ferey , Dmitrii Ostrovskii , Francis Bach , Alessandro Rudi