Related papers: Conditional tail risk expectations for location-sc…
Recent studies about cryptocurrency returns show that its distribution can be highly-peaked, skewed, and heavy-tailed, with a large excess kurtosis. To accommodate all these peculiarities, we propose the asymmetric Laplace scale mixture…
We investigate the application of the Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm for the estimation of tail probabilities of solutions of Stochastic Differential Equations evaluated at a given time, and of associated temporal averages. We…
It is well known that Expected Shortfall (also called Average Value-at-Risk) is a convex risk measure, i. e. Expected Shortfall of a convex linear combination of arbitrary risk positions is not greater than a convex linear combination with…
We characterize the complex, heavy-tailed probability distribution functions (pdf) describing the response and its local extrema for structural systems subjected to random forcing that includes extreme events. Our approach is based on the…
Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…
We propose and study the class of Box-Cox elliptical distributions. It provides alternative distributions for modeling multivariate positive, marginally skewed and possibly heavy-tailed data. This new class of distributions has as a special…
Extreme economic outcomes are not shaped by tails alone. They are also shaped by unequal access to opportunities. This paper develops a theory of heterogeneous extremes by taking the distribution of opportunity access as the object of…
The areas under workload process and under queuing process in a single server queue over the busy period have many applications not only in queuing theory but also in risk theory or percolation theory. We focus here on the tail behaviour of…
We report multicanonical Monte Carlo simulations of the tails of the order-parameter distribution of the two-dimensional Ising model for fixed boundary conditions. Clear numerical evidence for "fat" stretched exponential tails is found…
We study the tails of closing auction return distributions for a sample of liquid European stocks. We use the stochastic call auction model of Derksen et al. (2020a), to derive a relation between tail exponents of limit order placement…
We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…
We study the variability of a risk from the statistical viewpoint of multimodality of the conditional loss distribution given that the aggregate loss equals an exogenously provided capital. This conditional distribution serves as a building…
In this paper, we generalize the parametric Delta-VaR methods from portfolios with elliptic distributed risk factors to portfolios with mixture of elliptically distributed ones. We treat both the Expected Shortfall and the Value-at-Risk of…
Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…
In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The quality of a tail model, which is determined by data from an unknown distribution, depends critically on the subset of data used to model the tail. Based on a suitably weighted…
Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…
In this paper, we consider a property of univariate Gaussian distributions namely conditional expectation shift (or centroid shift). Specifically, we compare two Gaussian distributions in which they differ only in their means. Equivalently,…
The study of long-horizon returns has received a great deal of attention in recent years (see, for example, Boudoukh, Richardson, and Whitelaw (2008), Neuberger (2012) and Lee (2013), Fama and French (2018)). While most of the discussions…
The Lugannani-Rice formula is a saddlepoint approximation method for estimating the tail probability distribution function, which was originally studied for the sum of independent identically distributed random variables. Because of its…
This article proposes a mixture modeling approach to estimating cluster-wise conditional distributions in clustered (grouped) data. We adapt the mixture-of-experts model to the latent distributions, and propose a model in which each…