Related papers: Inference for partially observed epidemic dynamics…
We introduce a kinetic model that couples the movement of a population of individuals with the dynamics of a pathogen in the same population. We consider that transmission occurs when a susceptible and an infectious individual are…
Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…
This paper studies theory and inference related to a class of time series models that incorporates nonlinear dynamics. It is assumed that the observations follow a one-parameter exponential family of distributions given an accompanying…
The issue of state estimation is considered for an SIR-SI epidemiological model describing a vector-borne disease such as dengue fever, subject to seasonal variations. Assuming continuous measurement of the incidence rate (that is the…
In this paper we introduce a novel particle filter scheme for a class of partially-observed multivariate diffusions. %continuous-time dynamic models where the %signal is given by a multivariate diffusion process. We consider a variety of…
This paper presents a Koopman-based framework for early outbreak detection and intervention selection in a multi-agent epidemic simulation. Agents exhibit mobility patterns, heterogeneous susceptibility, immunity-dependent viral load…
In recent years, numerous advances have been made in understanding how epidemic dynamics is affected by changes in individual behaviours. We propose an SIS-based compartmental model to tackle the simultaneous and coupled evolution of an…
Much traditional statistical modelling assumes that the outcome variables of interest are independent of each other when conditioned on the explanatory variables. This assumption is strongly violated in the case of infectious diseases,…
In the previous paper an adaptive filtering based on a reference recursive recipe was developed and tested on a simulated dynamics of a spring, mass, and damper with a weak nonlinear spring. In this paper the above recipe is applied to a…
Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…
In this paper, we propose a realistic mathematical model taking into account the mutual interference among the interacting populations. This model attempts to describe the control (vaccination) function as a function of the number of…
The mathematical interpretation of interventions for the mitigation of epidemics and pandemics in the literature often involves finding the optimal time to initiate an intervention and/or the use of infections to manage impact. Whilst these…
Estimating the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations is a ubiquitous problem in a large number of applications, such as probabilistic weather forecasting and prediction of epidemics. Particle filters are a widely…
Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…
The exploration of epidemic dynamics on dynamically evolving ("adaptive") networks poses nontrivial challenges to the modeler, such as the determination of a small number of informative statistics of the detailed network state (that is, a…
We introduce a mathematical description of the impact of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases by integrating an epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic modeling of population-based contacts. The kinetic description leads to study…
Networks are landmarks of many complex phenomena where interweaving interactions between different agents transform simple local rule-sets into nonlinear emergent behaviors. While some recent studies unveil associations between the network…
Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model…
Mathematical modeling of disease outbreaks can infer the future trajectory of an epidemic, which can inform policy decisions. Another task is inferring the origin of a disease, which is relatively difficult with current mathematical models.…
Epidemic spread in a population is traditionally modeled via compartmentalized models which represent the free evolution of disease in absence of any intervention policies. In addition, these models assume full observability of disease…