Related papers: Can a Hurricane Be Managed
This second paper of the series (see the first one in [1]) models the dynamics and structure of upper hurricane layer in adiabatic approximation. Formulation of simplified aerodynamic model allows analytically express the radial…
We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling…
Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their…
Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…
We present a stochastic programming model for informing the deployment of ad hoc flood mitigation measures to protect electrical substations prior to an imminent and uncertain hurricane. The first stage captures the deployment of a fixed…
In this paper, we study the problem of forecasting the next year's number of Atlantic hurricanes, which is relevant in many fields of applications such as land-use planning, hazard mitigation, reinsurance and long-term weather derivative…
A theoretical formulation for the early stage (Tropical Storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. These solutions are not only consistent with observations but also offer some new insights into hurricane properties. This is the…
Despite the dangers associated with tropical cyclones and their rainfall, the origins of storm moisture remains unclear. Existing studies have focused on the region 40-400 km from the cyclone center. It is known that the rainfall within…
Aerodynamic models are developed to describe coherent structures and transport processes in hurricanes moving over open seas. The models consist of the lower boundary layer and upper adiabatic layer. Except friction at the air/sea…
Tropical cyclones cause significant inland hazards, including wind damage and freshwater flooding, that depend strongly on how storm intensity evolves at and after landfall. Existing theoretical predictions for the time-dependent and…
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…
The objective of this paper is to employ machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to obtain from input data (storm features) available in or derived from the HURDAT2 database models capable of simulating important hurricane…
In the United States, hurricanes are the most devastating natural disasters causing billions of dollars worth of damage every year. More importantly, construction jobsites are classified among the most vulnerable environments to severe wind…
Wind is one of the important reasonable resources. However, wind turbine towers are sure to be threatened by hurricanes. In this paper, method to estimate the number of wind turbine towers that would be buckled by hurricanes is discussed.…
We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical SSTs, and…
The dynamics of flooding are primarily influenced by the shape, height, and roughness (friction) of the underlying topography. For this reason, mechanisms to mitigate floods frequently employ structural measures that either modify…
In this series of papers, an analytical theory for the early stage (tropical storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. In Part I, a linear theory and a nonlinear theory have been formulated. It was found in Part I that the linear…
Storm surge, the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds and low pressure associated with a hurricane, can compound the effects of inland flooding caused by rainfall, leading to loss of property and loss of life for residents of…
We compare two methods for making predictions of the climatological distribution of the number of hurricanes making landfall along short sections of the North American coastline. The first method uses local data, and the second method uses…
We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the averaging length…