Related papers: Persistence in Financial Connectedness and Systemi…
In this research, we introduce a robust metric to identify Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) in a financial network by taking into account both common idiosyncratic shocks and contagion through counterparty exposures. We…
Multifractality is ubiquitously observed in complex natural and socioeconomic systems. Multifractal analysis provides powerful tools to understand the complex nonlinear nature of time series in diverse fields. Inspired by its striking…
We analyse time series of CDS spreads for a set of major US and European institutions on a pe- riod overlapping the recent financial crisis. We extend the existing methodology of {\epsilon}-drawdowns to the one of joint {\epsilon}-drawups,…
Shifting ecosystem disturbance patterns due to climate change (e.g. storms, droughts, wildfires) or direct human interference (e.g. harvests, nutrient loading) highlight the importance of quantifying and strengthening the resilience of…
Systemic risk refers to the overall vulnerability arising from the high degree of interconnectedness and interdependence within the financial system. In the rapidly developing decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, numerous studies have…
We study the statistics of simulated earthquakes in a quasistatic model of two parallel heterogeneous faults within a slowly driven elastic tectonic plate. The probability that one fault remains dormant while the other is active for a time…
Recent studies have investigated various dynamic processes characterizing collective behaviors in real-world systems. However, these dynamics have been studied individually in specific contexts. In this article, we present a holistic…
The problem of predicting links in large networks is an important task in a variety of practical applications, including social sciences, biology and computer security. In this paper, statistical techniques for link prediction based on the…
The global balance index is used in the network literature to quantify how balanced a signed network is. In this paper we show that the global balance index of financial correlation networks can be used as a systemic risk measure. We define…
Power systems are getting more complex than ever and are consequently operating close to their limit of stability. Moreover, with the increasing demand of renewable wind generation, and the requirement to maintain a secure power system, the…
The downside risk of a portfolio of (equity)assets is generally substantially higher than the downside risk of its components. In particular in times of crises when assets tend to have high correlation, the understanding of this difference…
The successive discrete structures generated by a sequential algorithm from random input constitute a Markov chain that may exhibit long term dependence on its first few input values. Using examples from random graph theory and search…
This paper examines the pricing of short-term and long-term dynamic network risk in the cross-section of stock returns. Stocks with high sensitivities to dynamic network risk earn lower returns. We rationalize our finding with economic…
The increasing integration of world economies, which organize in complex multilayer networks of interactions, is one of the critical factors for the global propagation of economic crises. We adopt the network science approach to quantify…
This paper studies the daily connectivity time series of a wind speed-monitoring network using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. It investigates the long-range fluctuation and multifractality in the residuals of the connectivity…
The stability of a complex system generally decreases with increasing system size and interconnectivity, a counterintuitive result of widespread importance across the physical, life, and social sciences. Despite recent interest in the…
National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to…
We show that the emergence of systemic risk in complex systems can be understood from the evolution of functional networks representing interactions inferred from fluctuation correlations between macroscopic observables. Specifically, we…
Persistent homology is a topological data analysis tool that has been widely generalized, extending its scope beyond the field of topology. Among its extensions, steady and ranging persistence were developed to study a wide variety of graph…
This paper proposes a new measure of tail risk spillover. The empirical application provides evidence of significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from the financial sector to many real economy sectors in the U.S. economy in the…