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We study stationarity and moments properties of some count time series models from contraction and stability properties of iterated random maps. Both univariate and multivariate processes are considered, including the recent multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-26 Zinsou Max Debaly , Lionel Truquet

This paper studies a class of multivariate threshold autoregressive models, known as censored and kinked structural vector autoregressions (CKSVAR), which are notably able to accommodate series that are subject to occasionally binding…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-20 James A. Duffy , Sophocles Mavroeidis , Sam Wycherley

We consider Markov chains on general state spaces in stationary random environment which are defined by a random mapping that is contractive up to a bounded perturbation. We prove their convergence to a limiting law, providing convergence…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-18 Attila Lovas , Miklós Rásonyi , Lionel Truquet

Random variables in metric spaces indexed by time and observed at equally spaced time points are receiving increased attention due to their broad applicability. The absence of inherent structure in metric spaces has resulted in a literature…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-24 Matthieu Bulté , Helle Sørensen

Ergodic exploration has spawned a lot of interest in mobile robotics due to its ability to design time trajectories that match desired spatial coverage statistics. However, current ergodic approaches are for continuous spaces, which require…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Benjamin Wong , Ryan H. Lee , Tyler M. Paine , Santosh Devasia , Ashis G. Banerjee

Vector autoregressive models characterize a variety of time series in which linear combinations of current and past observations can be used to accurately predict future observations. For instance, each element of an observation vector…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-27 Eric C. Hall , Garvesh Raskutti , Rebecca Willett

Let $(X_n)_{n=0}^\infty$ denote a Markov chain on a Polish space that has a stationary distribution $\varpi$. This article concerns upper bounds on the Wasserstein distance between the distribution of $X_n$ and $\varpi$. In particular, an…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-16 Qian Qin , James P. Hobert

Markov chains in random environments (MCREs) have recently attracted renewed interest, as these processes naturally arise in many applications, such as econometrics and machine learning. Although specific asymptotic results, such as the law…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-22 Attila Lovas , Lionel Truquet

We consider a general honest homogeneous continuous-time Markov process with restarts. The process is forced to restart from a given distribution at time moments generated by an independent Poisson process. The motivation to study such…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-26 Konstantin Avrachenkov , Alexei Piunovskiy , Zhang Yi

We study the finiteness of physical measures for skew-product transformations $F$ associated with discrete-time random dynamical systems driven by ergodic Markov chains. We develop a framework, using an independent and identically…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-18 Pablo G. Barrientos , Dominique Malicet , Fumihiko Nakamura , Yushi Nakano , Hisayoshi Toyokawa

Exponential inequalities are main tools in machine learning theory. To prove exponential inequalities for non i.i.d random variables allows to extend many learning techniques to these variables. Indeed, much work has been done both on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-03 Pierre Alquier , Paul Doukhan , Xiequan Fan

Orthogonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (OGARCH) is widely used in finance industry to produce volatility and correlation forecasts. We show that the classic OGARCH model, nevertheless, tends to be too…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-27 Yufan Li

We study the Ergodic Properties of Random Walks in stationary ergodic environments without uniform ellipticity under a minimal assumption. There are two main components in our work. The first step is to adopt the arguments of Lawler to…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Ayan Ghosh

We introduce an statistical mechanical formalism for the study of discrete-time stochastic processes with which we prove: (i) General properties of extremal chains, including triviality on the tail $\sigma$-algebra, short-range…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Roberto Fernandez , Gregory Maillard

In this paper, new conditions for the stability of V-geometrically ergodic Markov chains are introduced. The results are based on an extension of the standard perturbation theory formulated by Keller and Liverani. The continuity and higher…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-27 Déborah Ferré , Loïc Hervé , James Ledoux

We generalize stochastic subgradient descent methods to situations in which we do not receive independent samples from the distribution over which we optimize, but instead receive samples that are coupled over time. We show that as long as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-08-02 John C. Duchi , Alekh Agarwal , Mikael Johansson , Michael I. Jordan

In this work, we focus on the stationary analysis of a specific class of continuous time Markov-modulated reflected random walks in the quarter plane with applications in the modelling of two-node Markov-modulated queueing networks with…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-02 Ioannis Dimitriou

In stochastic models for queues and their networks, random events evolve in time. A process for their backward evolution is referred to as a time reversed process. It is often greatly helpful to view a stochastic model from two different…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-30 Masakiyo Miyazawa

Let $X:=(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be an ergodic Markov process on $\real^d$, and $p>0$. We derive upper bounds of the $p$-Wasserstein distance between the invariant measure and the empirical measures of the Markov process $X$. For this we assume,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-30 René L. Schilling , Jian Wang , Bingyao Wu , Jie-Xiang Zhu

We provide quantitative bounds for the long time behavior of a class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes with state space Rd \times E where E is a finite set. The continuous component evolves according to a smooth vector field that…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-12-07 Michel Benaïm , Stéphane Le Borgne , Florent Malrieu , Pierre-André Zitt
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