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When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-19 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

Bayesian inference is used extensively to quantify the uncertainty in an inferred field given the measurement of a related field when the two are linked by a mathematical model. Despite its many applications, Bayesian inference faces…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-31 Dhruv V. Patel , Assad A. Oberai

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently gained popularity due to their ability to quantify model uncertainty. However, specifying a prior for BNNs that captures relevant domain knowledge is often extremely challenging. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-22 Dylan Sam , Rattana Pukdee , Daniel P. Jeong , Yewon Byun , J. Zico Kolter

We consider multi-task regression models where the observations are assumed to be a linear combination of several latent node functions and weight functions, which are both drawn from Gaussian process priors. Driven by the problem of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-05 Astrid Dahl , Edwin V. Bonilla

In spite of the recent surge of interest in quantile regression, joint estimation of linear quantile planes remains a great challenge in statistics and econometrics. We propose a novel parametrization that characterizes any collection of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-14 Yun Yang , Surya Tokdar

We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-12 Francisco J. Rubio , Marc G. Genton

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-22 Katharine Fisher , Youssef Marzouk

Bayesian statistical inference for Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with parameters lying on a constrained space is of general interest (e.g., in monotonic or convex regression), but often constructing valid prior distributions supported on…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-02 Rahul Ghosal , Sujit K. Ghosh

A new method for multinomial inference is proposed by representing the cell probabilities as unordered segments on the unit interval and following Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory. The resulting DS posterior is then strengthened to improve…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Earl C. Lawrence , Alexander C. Murph , Scott A. Vander Wiel , Chaunhai Liu

Spike-and-slab priors are popular Bayesian solutions for high-dimensional linear regression problems. Previous theoretical studies on spike-and-slab methods focus on specific prior formulations and use prior-dependent conditions and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-14 Bai Jiang , Qiang Sun

Shape restricted regressions, including isotonic regression and concave regression as special cases, are studied using priors on Bernstein polynomials and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. These priors have large supports, select only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 I-Shou Chang , Li-Chu Chien , Chao A. Hsiung , Chi-Chung Wen , Yuh-Jenn Wu

The skew-normal and the skew-$t$ distributions are parametric families which are currently under intense investigation since they provide a more flexible formulation compared to the classical normal and $t$ distributions by introducing a…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-13 Adelchi Azzalini , Reinaldo B. Arellano-Valle

Large, non-Gaussian spatial datasets pose a considerable modeling challenge as the dependence structure implied by the model needs to be captured at different scales, while retaining feasible inference. Skew-normal and skew-t distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-07 Felipe Tagle , Stefano Castruccio , Marc G. Genton

Bayesian analysis of data from the general linear mixed model is challenging because any nontrivial prior leads to an intractable posterior density. However, if a conditionally conjugate prior density is adopted, then there is a simple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-19 Jorge Carlos Román , James P. Hobert

Constrained learning is prevalent in many statistical tasks. Recent work proposes distance-to-set penalties to derive estimators under general constraints that can be specified as sets, but focuses on obtaining point estimates that do not…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-25 Rick Presman , Jason Xu

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-01 Yan Chen , Lihua Lei

In this paper we show that there is a link between approximate Bayesian methods and prior robustness. We show that what is typically recognized as an approximation to the likelihood, either due to the simulated data as in the Approximate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-03 Chaitanya Joshi , Fabrizio Ruggeri

We develop singular value shrinkage priors for the mean matrix parameters in the matrix-variate normal model with known covariance matrices. Our priors are superharmonic and put more weight on matrices with smaller singular values. They are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-05 Takeru Matsuda , Fumiyasu Komaki

We introduce a Bayesian prior distribution, the Logit-Normal continuous analogue of the spike-and-slab (LN-CASS), which enables flexible parameter estimation and variable/model selection in a variety of settings. We demonstrate its use and…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-04 William Thomson , Sara Jabbari , Angela Taylor , Wiebke Arlt , David Smith

The logistic and probit link functions are the most common choices for regression models with a binary response. However, these choices are not robust to the presence of outliers/unexpected observations. The robit link function, which is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-21 Sourav Mukherjee , Kshitij Khare , Saptarshi Chakraborty
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