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Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-01-10 Kory D. Johnson , Annemarie Grass , Daniel Toneian , Mathias Beiglböck , Jitka Polechová

At the time of writing, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had already resulted in more than thirty-two million cases infected and more than one million deaths worldwide.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-22 Chung-Han Hsieh

Multiple studies have suggested the spread of COVID-19 is affected by factors such as climate, BCG vaccinations, pollution and blood type. We perform a joint study of these factors using the death growth rates of 40 regions worldwide with…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-14 Chris Finlay , Bruce A. Bassett

Although previous infection and vaccination provide protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, both reinfection and breakthrough infection are possible events whose occurrence would increase with time after first exposure to the antigen and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-06-07 Ariel Félix Gualtieri , Carolina de la Cal , Augusto Francisco Toma , Pedro Hecht

We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-12-05 Chao-Ran Cai , Zhi-Xi wu , Jian-Yue Guan

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, sparing almost no community. As the disease will likely remain a threat for years to come, an understanding of the precise influences of human demographics…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-02 Niayesh Afshordi , Benjamin Holder , Mohammad Bahrami , Daniel Lichtblau

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the most infectious diseases and one of the greatest challenge due to global health crisis. The virus has been transmitted globally and spreading so fast with high incidence. While, the virus…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-03 Marvin G. Pizon , Ronald R. Baldo , Ruthlyn N. Villarante , Jessica D. Balatero

The transmission and evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are of paramount importance to the controlling and combating of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Currently, near 15,000 SARS-CoV-2…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2020-08-21 Rui Wang , Yuta Hozumi , Yong-Hui Zheng , Changchuan Yin , Guo-Wei Wei

Increasing number in global COVID-19 cases demands for mathematical model to analyze the interaction between the virus dynamics and the response of innate and adaptive immunity. Here, based on the assumption of a weak and delayed response…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-13 Zhengqing Zhou , Zhiheng Zhao , Shuyu Shi , Jianghua Wu , Dianjie Li , Jianwei Li , Jingpeng Zhang , Ke Gui , Yu Zhang , Heng Mei , Yu Hu , Qi Ouyang , Fangting Li

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most pressing issues at present. A question which is particularly important for governments and policy makers is the following: Does the virus spread in the same way in different countries? Or are there…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-05 Marina Khismatullina , Michael Vogt

In the present article we introduce an epidemiological model for the investigation of the spread of epidemics caused by viruses. The model is applied specifically to COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus (aka "novel…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-10 Rodrigo A. Schulz , Carlos H. Coimbra-Araújo , Samuel W. S. Costiche

In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-22 Yi-Cheng Chen , Ping-En Lu , Cheng-Shang Chang , Tzu-Hsuan Liu

Most models of epidemic spread, including many designed specifically for COVID-19, implicitly assume mass-action contact patterns and undirected contact networks, meaning that the individuals most likely to spread the disease are also the…

We present two different approaches for modeling the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Both approaches are based on the population classes susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantined, and recovered and allow for an arbitrary number of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-11 Constantia Alexandrou , Vangelis Harmandaris , Anastasios Irakleous , Giannis Koutsou , Nikos Savva

The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-08-04 Christopher Rose , Andrew J. Medford , C. Franklin Goldsmith , Tejs Vegge , Joshua S. Weitz , Andrew A. Peterson

Some of the key questions of interest during the COVID-19 pandemic (and all outbreaks) include: where did the disease start, how is it spreading, who is at risk, and how to control the spread. There are a large number of complex factors…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-22 Aniruddha Adiga , Jiangzhuo Chen , Madhav Marathe , Henning Mortveit , Srinivasan Venkatramanan , Anil Vullikanti

We present in this work some results from analysing the spread of Covid-19 in different countries and regions around the world and the potential relations with climate, geographical location, and GDP. While the situation remains dynamic, we…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-04-21 Asit Kumar Mishra , Pawel Wargocki

The spread of COVID-19 has brought challenges to health, social and economic systems around the world. With little to no prior immunity in the global population transmission has been driven primarily by human interaction. However, as with…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-08-09 Jamie Mullineaux , Takoua Jendoubi , Baptiste Leurent