Related papers: Estimating Stochastic Poisson Intensities Using De…

We introduce a rigorous framework for stochastic cell transmission models for general traffic networks. The performance of traffic systems is evaluated based on preference functionals and acceptable designs. The numerical implementation…

We consider the problem of estimating parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with discrete-time observations that are either completely or partially observed. The transition density between two observations is generally…

Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

This work introduces a new framework integrating port-Hamiltonian systems (PHS) and neural network architectures. This framework bridges the gap between deterministic and stochastic modeling of complex dynamical systems. We introduce new…

This paper deals with the problem of estimating second-order parameter sensitivities for stochastic reaction networks, where the reaction dynamics is modeled as a continuous time Markov chain over a discrete state space. Estimation of such…

This paper proposes a log-linear model for the latent intensity functions of a replicated spatio-temporal point process. By simultaneously fitting correlated spatial and temporal Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansions, the model produces spatial and…

We propose a method for variable selection in the intensity function of spatial point processes that combines sparsity-promoting estimation with noise-robust model selection. As high-resolution spatial data becomes increasingly available…

This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling,…

We present an approximate Bayesian inference approach for estimating the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process, where the intensity function is modelled using a Gaussian process (GP) prior via a sigmoid link function. Augmenting the…

Neural processes (NPs) constitute a family of variational approximate models for stochastic processes with promising properties in computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification. These processes use neural networks with latent…

Stochastic simulation has been widely used to analyze the performance of complex stochastic systems and facilitate decision making in those systems. Stochastic simulation is driven by the input model, which is a collection of probability…

In the past few decades, the development of fluorescent technologies and microscopic techniques has greatly improved scientists' ability to observe real-time single-cell activities. In this paper, we consider the filtering problem associate…

We develop deep Poisson-gamma dynamical systems (DPGDS) to model sequentially observed multivariate count data, improving previously proposed models by not only mining deep hierarchical latent structure from the data, but also capturing…

This paper proposes a new stochastic model of traffic dynamics in Lagrangian coordinates. The source of uncertainty is heterogeneity in driving behavior, captured using driver-specific speed-spacing relations, i.e., parametric uncertainty.…

In this work, we introduce a new methodology for inferring the interaction structure of discrete valued time series which are Poisson distributed. While most related methods are premised on continuous state stochastic processes, in fact,…

Counting processes often written $N=(N_t)_{t\in\mathbb{R}^+}$ are used in several applications of biostatistics, notably for the study of chronic diseases. In the case of respiratory illness it is natural to suppose that the count of the…

We propose a data-driven method to learn the time-dependent probability density of a multivariate stochastic process from sample paths, assuming that the initial probability density is known and can be evaluated. Our method uses a novel…

Latent variable models have been playing a central role in psychometrics and related fields. In many modern applications, the inference based on latent variable models involves one or several of the following features: (1) the presence of…

This work studies nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson point process in the important case where the intensity depends on covariates, based on the observation of a single realisation of the…

Increasing effort is put into the development of methods for learning mechanistic models from data. This task entails not only the accurate estimation of parameters but also a suitable model structure. Recent work on the discovery of…